A New IMF Report Calls on Country Authorities to Prepare for "New Shocks"
The Press — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned, in a report made public on September 24, of "uncertainty of an exceptional magnitude" affecting the global economy. "This development, according to the same source, adds to the uncertainty generated by ongoing conflicts and major transformations that make the economic environment less favorable and more unpredictable," the report states. The new uncertainties, according to the IMF, are particularly related to technological advancements, including artificial intelligence, which, while bringing new opportunities, require "considerable adjustments." The IMF report also cites "trade tensions and the tariffs that accompany them." These protectionist tensions are likely to weigh on growth and debt, with the IMF revising its global growth forecasts downward to "2.8% for this year and 3% for 2026." According to the report, the effects of this new context vary from country to country, and it is, as usual, low-income countries that are the most vulnerable.
For some countries (which are not named), the new context makes the goal of "reducing poverty out of reach." To address this, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, while acknowledging that "IMF member countries are facing significant difficulties," suggests taking action at the domestic level first to "preserve macroeconomic and financial stability while ensuring debt sustainability." It is also necessary to "address imbalances between countries and improve growth prospects," she argued, in a written statement published in the report, announcing a number of accompanying measures. At the international level, "countries must seek concerted solutions to their common economic challenges," she indicated. The IMF report repeatedly calls on country authorities to prepare for "new shocks." "Authorities will need to show determination to reduce vulnerability factors and prepare for shocks. Among other measures, they will need to ensure the resilience of market infrastructure, carefully monitor financial institutions, and use emergency liquidity and crisis resolution instruments. The goal must be to reduce sources of vulnerability and better prepare for future crises."
"Financial crises can severely damage macroeconomic outcomes," the IMF warns. "Moreover, the increased interdependence of financial institutions worldwide means that tensions in one country can have repercussions around the world," the report adds.
This alarm signal comes in a context of geopolitical tensions related, among other things, to the war in Ukraine, which has affected, for the third consecutive year, the main market economies in Europe and, indirectly, the partner countries of the European Union.
The tariffs decided at the beginning of the year by the United States on imports from many countries, including China and the European Union, have had an immediate impact on global trade, investment, and growth forecasts.
According to an update published by the World Trade Organization (WTO), the growth of global merchandise trade is expected to be 0.9% in 2025, compared to an estimated rate of 2.7% before the increase in tariffs, and next year, a growth of 1.8% in global trade is forecast, compared to 2.5% previously. However, international institutions continue to monitor the evolution at the global level and recommend that their members, in turn, monitor...
