Tunisia's Economy Shows Signs of Recovery in 2025
After several years of moderate growth, Tunisia's economy is showing signs of recovery in 2025, driven by agriculture, tourism, and construction. In this fragile context, the social protection program Amen remains a crucial lever to support vulnerable households and reduce poverty.
Economic Recovery
According to the World Bank's Autumn 2025 Economic Outlook report, presented by Lodewijk Smets, the country's economic growth reached 2.4% in the first nine months of 2025, driven by a rebound in the agricultural sector and a recovery in construction and tourism. The agricultural sector benefited from favorable weather conditions, recording a 9.5% growth, with remarkable performances in olive oil (+55%) and cereals (+70%) during the 2024-2025 harvest.
Construction progressed by 5.7% after several years of stagnation, while tourism contributed modestly to growth due to an increase in visitor numbers. However, the recovery is uneven across sectors, with the financial sector contracting by -8.8% due to increased taxation on financial institutions, and hydrocarbons declining by 10.5% due to field closures and lack of new investments.
Labor Market and External Situation
The labor market shows signs of improvement, with unemployment decreasing to 15.4% in the third quarter of 2025, compared to 16% in 2024, marking the seventh consecutive quarterly decline. However, women remain heavily penalized, with an unemployment rate of 22.4% and a labor force participation rate of only 28.2%, compared to 12.1% and 64.9% for men, respectively. The economy created 94,100 net jobs in the third quarter of 2025, mainly in agriculture and construction.
The external situation remains fragile, with a trade deficit of 9% of GDP, driven by stagnant exports and increased imports. The current account deficit reached 2% of GDP in the first half of 2025. Foreign direct investment increased by 41% in the first seven months of the year, supporting foreign exchange reserves, while the dinar remained relatively stable. Inflation continued to slow, decreasing from 10.4% in February 2023 to 4.9% in October 2025, allowing the Central Bank to reduce its policy rate to 7.5%.
Budget and Debt
On the budgetary front, the deficit decreased to 6.3% of GDP in 2024 due to expenditure control and increased tax revenues, but the debt level remains high (84.5% of GDP in August 2025). Domestic debt accounts for 77% of total debt, with increasing reliance on domestic financing. This situation limits credit availability for the private sector, despite incentives to support SMEs.
Medium-Term Outlook
The World Bank forecasts moderate growth of 2.4% in 2026-2027, driven by financing constraints and obstacles to market entry, with risks mainly oriented downwards. The current account deficit is expected to increase slightly to 3.1% of GDP in 2027, while the budget deficit could decrease to 4.4% of GDP, and public debt marginally decrease to 83.6% of GDP.
Social Protection Program Amen
The second part of the report, presented by Mohamed El Aziz Ben Ghachem, focuses on the non-contributory social protection program "Amen", which plays a central role in protecting vulnerable households. Amen provides monthly cash transfers of 260 TND per household, covers approximately 1 million households, and allows access to free or subsidized medical care, as well as family allowances. The program has significantly contributed to reducing poverty and inequality, decreasing the Gini coefficient by 1.09 points and reducing poverty by 2.14 percentage points. More than 50% of total expenditures benefit the 20% of poorest households, while less than 7% are captured by the 30% richest households.
Despite these progress, the Amen program faces several challenges, including imperfect targeting, regional disparities, limited institutional capacities, budgetary constraints (1% of GDP in 2025), and lack of harmonization with the contributory system. To improve efficiency, it is recommended to strengthen targeting accuracy, modernize implementation systems, extend contributory coverage to informal sector workers, and improve access to employment, particularly for young people and women.
Conclusion
In summary, the report highlights that Tunisia is experiencing a moderate economic recovery, driven by agriculture and construction, but faces financial, structural, and social challenges. The Amen program constitutes a strategic tool for reducing poverty and supporting vulnerable households, while laying the groundwork for more equitable and sustainable social protection. A combination of prudent economic policy and inclusive social reform will be essential to strengthen the country's resilience and growth in the medium term.
