World Bank Anticipates 5.7% Budget Deficit for Tunisia in 2025
The World Bank expects a budget deficit of 5.7% of Tunisia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025, according to its latest regional report on the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, published on Tuesday, October 7.
Forecasted Deficit Reduction
The report forecasts a gradual reduction in the deficit over the medium term, reaching 4.4% of GDP by 2027, thanks in part to better control of the wage bill and subsidies.
Public Debt
Meanwhile, public debt is expected to slightly decrease, falling from 84.5% of GDP in 2024 to 83.6% in 2027. The World Bank interprets this development as a modest but encouraging sign of improvement in the country's debt trajectory.
Investment Stability
Stability is also expected in terms of investments. Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) are expected to remain stable, following a notable increase of 21.3% in the first half of 2025. According to data from the Foreign Investment Promotion Agency (FIPA), FDI reached 1,640.5 million dinars (MD) by the end of June, compared to 1,352.4 MD during the same period in 2024. The Tunisian authorities aim to attract 3,400 MD in FDI by the end of the year and 4 billion dinars in 2026, the first year of implementation of the 2023-2026 Development Plan.
Macroeconomic Indicators
On the macroeconomic front, growth reached 2.4% in the first half of 2025, compared to only 1% during the same period in 2024. Inflation, on the other hand, has significantly decreased, falling to 5% in September 2025, its lowest level since May 2021, after being 7% in 2024 and 9% in 2023. This improvement is attributed to a restrictive monetary policy implemented by the Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT), particularly through the rationalization of the benchmark interest rate. The annual inflation rate has thus fallen from 10.4% in February 2023 to 5% in September. The Central Bank expects this trend to continue, with an average inflation rate of 5.3% for the whole of 2025.
Unemployment and Exchange Rate
Unemployment has also slightly decreased, reaching 15.3% compared to 16% in 2024. The exchange rate has remained stable, and foreign exchange reserves have been maintained at a comfortable level, equivalent to 104 days of imports.
Economic Recovery
To recall, the Minister of Economy and Planning highlighted, during a plenary session in Parliament, the improvement in investment intentions and the upgrade of Tunisia's sovereign rating, which he considers signs of a progressive economic recovery.
