Recent Economic Bulletin for Tunisia: A Positive Outlook
The latest economic bulletin for Tunisia, published by the World Bank under the title "Strengthening Social Safety Nets for Greater Efficiency and Equity," highlights the resilience and positive prospects of the Tunisian economy. This report supports the economic orientations defended by President Kaïs Saïed for several years and contradicts a set of alarmist analyses.
Economic Recovery
The Tunisian economy confirms its recovery thanks to a stronger agricultural sector, the rebound of the construction sector, and a good performance in tourism, according to the World Bank. The real GDP progressed by 2.4% over the first nine months of 2025, after several years of moderate growth following the Covid-19 crisis. Moreover, the institution's forecasts anticipate a growth of 2.6% in 2025, before stabilizing around 2.4% in 2026-2027.
On the macroeconomic front, inflation continues to decline for the seventh consecutive month, falling to 4.9% in October, compared to a peak of 10.4% in February 2023. This dynamic is explained by the decline in global energy and cereal prices, with food inflation now limited to 5.6%.
However, the current account deficit has deepened to 2% of GDP, due to the increase in imports and the stagnation of exports. Nevertheless, the solidity of tourist revenues and transfers from Tunisians abroad has helped to cushion external pressures, according to the World Bank.
These indicators confirm the increased solidity of the Tunisian economy, driven by a renewed investment dynamic and more controlled budget management. In fact, and according to the World Bank, foreign direct investment shows a significant increase of 41% over the first seven months of the year, mainly driven by projects in renewable energies, contributing to external stability despite restricted access to international markets. On the budgetary level, the public deficit has been reduced to 6.3% of GDP in 2024, while public debt stands at around 84.5%. It is clear that Tunisia is on the right track.
Social Protection and Investment Dynamization
The report dedicates a special chapter to social protection, highlighting the structuring role of assistance programs. In this context, it particularly emphasizes the Amen Social program, which supports the poorest and most vulnerable households in the country, and whose coverage has tripled to reach nearly 10% of the population, thus playing a determining role in reducing poverty.
"Tunisia has made significant progress in terms of coverage for the poorest," notes Alexandre Arrobbio, Resident Representative of the World Bank in Tunisia.
In its report, the World Bank stresses the importance of preserving macroeconomic stability, strengthening budget viability, and pursuing public enterprise reforms, while improving competition and the investment climate, all of which are considered essential conditions for ensuring durable and shared prosperity.
These recommendations confirm that Tunisia is already anticipating these challenges. Thus, during the restricted ministerial council on November 13, the head of government, on the recommendation of the President of the Republic, presented the main guidelines for modernizing the national investment system, focusing on simplification, digitalization, and transparency.
A single national platform will centralize all procedures, some authorizations will be replaced by specifications to facilitate market access, and incentives will be oriented towards strategic sectors and less developed regions, as part of the 2026-2030 plan. The implementation of these reforms is expected to be completed by the first quarter of 2026, thereby strengthening the attractiveness and confidence in the Tunisian economy.
An Orientation Guided by the Country's Interests
These conclusions are in line with the recurrent statements of the Head of State, who has consistently emphasized the need for "economic sovereignty and breaking with traditional approaches deemed ineffective." Kaïs Saïed has affirmed on several occasions that Tunisia "must get out of the vicious circle of debt" and build a model based on "a real, productive economy at the service of the people."
He has also recalled that "national will must prevail over all pressures," estimating that solutions imposed from outside "cannot meet the real needs of the country."
By emphasizing an economy based on social justice, the fight against corruption, and the valorization of national capacities, the Head of State has defended an assumed orientation, guided by the country's interests rather than political or financial considerations.
These choices had sparked sharp criticism from some experts, who predicted an imminent collapse of the economy and major financial destabilization, while reproaching the power for a supposed lack of economic diplomacy. But these pessimistic readings are not surprising, as those who discreetly influence these analyses are well identified.
The World Bank's dispatch comes today to contradict these pessimistic readings, highlighting that Tunisia has "the necessary bases to consolidate a recovery cycle," provided that the engaged reforms are carried out. Far from the catastrophic scenarios relayed by certain circles, the Tunisian trajectory seems to benefit from a more nuanced, more objective look, and international institutional credit.
Rebound and Promising Future
Through his multiple interventions, President Kaïs Saïed has always defined the major axes of his economic project, based on national sovereignty, social justice, participatory planning, administrative reform, support for key sectors of the economy, and the fight against speculation and corruption. This orientation aims to enable Tunisia to regain the path of development and prosperity with determination and without compromise.
It must be said that Tunisia seems to be experiencing a true economic rebound, driven, as always, by regained security stability. The fight against corruption and market regulation reinforce investor confidence and stabilize prices, creating a favorable climate for growth. By combining stability, social protection, and good governance, the country is laying the foundations for a durable recovery and more shared prosperity.
However, the challenges remain significant. The modernization of the legislative framework, the improvement of the investment climate, and the reform of economic governance are among the top priorities. But for Carthage, the essential is now acquired, and Tunisia is advancing surely, despite obstacles and attempts at interference, in a direction that major financial institutions now consider hopeful.
