Economic Challenges in Tunisia: Understanding the Depreciation of the Dinar
On September 15, 2025, the euro exchanged for 3.414 Tunisian dinars, while the dollar traded for 2.910 dinars, marking a new stage in the depreciation of the national currency. This development raises questions, especially since the Tunisian economy recorded a growth of 3.2% in the second quarter.
Factors Contributing to the Dinar's Depreciation
According to Tunisian economist Arbi Ben Bouhali, based in Australia, several structural factors explain the loss of value. Firstly, Tunisia suffers from a chronic trade deficit, particularly in energy, which reached 14,640 million dinars in the first eight months of the year. Exports are stagnant, decreasing by 0.43% of GDP in the second quarter, which reduces the influx of foreign currencies to the Central Bank.
Inflation and Its Impact
Meanwhile, inflation in Tunisia (5.2%) remains significantly higher than in the euro zone (2.2%), exacerbating the erosion of the dinar's purchasing power. Fitch forecasts a current account deficit of 2.2% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026, which increases the demand for foreign currencies and reduces the attractiveness of the dinar.
Additional Pressures on the Dinar
The economist adds that pressure is also increasing with the rise in the value of the Tunis Stock Exchange (+24% in eight months). Since about 20% of the capital of listed companies is held by foreigners, part of the dividends is transferred abroad, fueling the demand for euros and dollars. Traditional exports, such as olive oil (-29% in value) and dates (-6%), are also declining, worsening the trade balance.
Depletion of Foreign Reserves
Furthermore, foreign exchange reserves have decreased to 109 days of imports, compared to 121 a year earlier, reducing the Central Bank's ability to stabilize the dinar. Finally, the massive recourse of the state to internal financing — 14,000 million dinars injected by the BCT and 21,000 million lent by banks — contributes to a monetary surplus, which ultimately weighs on the value of the national currency.
Conclusion
For Arbi Ben Bouhali, the conclusion is clear: dependence on imports, weakness of exports, and financing deficits through monetary creation explain the fragility of the dinar. "Growth does not necessarily rhyme with a strong currency," he emphasizes, recalling that household consumption represents 77% of GDP and is essentially based on imported goods.
