Tunisia's Oil Production Continues to Decline, Down 13% by End of March 2026
Tunisia's oil production has been experiencing a structural decline, with a drop of approximately 13% by the end of March 2026 compared to the same period in 2025. This trend is attributed to a combination of geological, economic, regulatory, and global energy transition factors, according to expert analyses in the sector.
According to Ezzedine Khalfallah, an international energy specialist, the advanced maturity of Tunisia's main oil fields is a key factor in this decline. The majority of the country's historical oil fields, particularly in the south and the Gulf of Gabès, have entered a natural depletion phase after several decades of exploitation. This evolution leads to a gradual and inevitable decrease in extracted volumes, which is difficult to compensate for without significant new discoveries.
This situation is exacerbated by the marked slowdown in exploration activities over the past decade. The number of exploitation and exploration permits has plummeted, from around 54 in 2010 to nearly a dozen in 2026.
This contraction reflects a decrease in investor interest in Tunisia's hydrocarbons sector, as well as a lack of investment in exploratory drilling. As a result, several international companies have reduced their presence in Tunisia or exited the market. These withdrawals are attributed to insufficient profitability, linked to the absence of significant discoveries in recent years and limited production prospects compared to other more economically attractive regions.
Additional factors contributing to this decline include the structural transformation of the global energy sector. Major oil companies are gradually redirecting their investments towards renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, and green hydrogen, as part of their decarbonization policies and international climate commitments. This reallocation of capital mechanically reduces interest in exploration areas with uncertain returns.
The regulatory and fiscal framework is another element often cited by investors. Several operators highlight administrative complexity, lengthy authorization delays, and limited long-term fiscal visibility, which can hinder investment decision-making in high-capital-intensity and high-risk projects.
On a separate note, social tensions on certain production sites have also had a punctual impact on the continuity of activities. Local employment or regional development-related movements have sometimes led to interruptions or slowdowns in production, reinforcing operational uncertainty in certain fields.
In parallel, production costs per barrel have increased on several sites due to the aging of fields and declining yields.
This increase in costs, combined with the decline in extracted volumes, reduces the profitability margins of remaining operators.
From a macroeconomic perspective, this contraction in oil production occurs in a context of growing pressure on Tunisia's energy system.
The country relies heavily on natural gas for electricity production, which accounts for approximately 90% of the electricity mix, and also imports electricity to meet part of the national demand.
In light of these imbalances, authorities and experts converge on the need to accelerate the energy transition.
This transition is based on the development of renewable energy sources, energy efficiency improvement, modernization of the electricity grid, and progressive reform of the regulatory framework to relaunch investment in exploration.
In this context, renewable energy sources are increasingly seen as a strategic priority to reduce the country's energy dependence and mitigate the impact of the structural decline in oil production.
