Climate Outlook for the March‑April‑May 2026 Quarter
Source: National Institute of Meteorology (INM) bulletin, 28 February 2026
Overview
The INM’s latest forecast indicates a moderate probability of temperatures above the seasonal normals across the whole country during the March‑April‑May (MAM) quarter of 2026. However, the bulletin highlights strong regional disparities:
| Region | General Climate | Temperature Trend | Humidity & Rainfall |
|---|---|---|---|
| North | Generally moderate, occasionally cool | Slightly cooler than average early in the quarter | Higher relative humidity and significant precipitation |
| Center | Temperate conditions | Gradual warming week‑by‑week | Moderate rainfall |
| South | Warm and relatively dry | Warm throughout the quarter | Limited rain |
Expected Temperature Ranges (Quarter‑Average)
| Region | Average Minimum | Average Maximum |
|---|---|---|
| North & Center | 15 °C | 19 °C |
| South | 17 °C | 22 °C |
On the high plateaus (e.g., Thala), temperatures may dip to 13 °C.
Expected Precipitation (Quarter‑Total)
| Location | Expected Rainfall |
|---|---|
| Nabeul (North) | 87 mm |
| Tabarka (North) | 208 mm |
| El Borma (South) | ≈ 20 mm |
| Thala (High Plateau) | 71 mm – 116 mm |
Overall, the North will receive the bulk of the rain, while the South stays markedly drier.
Model Consensus
The climate models used for these forecasts do not favor any single scenario for the quarter. All hypotheses are balanced, showing no clear trend toward a particular precipitation pattern.
Monthly Breakdown
March – “Cool‑Moderate”
- Compared to the 1991‑2020 normals, conditions remain moderately cool.
| Region | Temperature Range | Notable Low | Expected Rainfall |
|---|---|---|---|
| North & Center | 11 °C – 15 °C | – | 45 mm – 90 mm |
| South | 14 °C – 17 °C | – | 30 mm – 40 mm |
| Thala (Plateau) | ≈ 9 °C (lowest) | 9 °C | – |
April – “Gradual Warm‑Up”
- Temperatures rise steadily across the country.
| Region | Temperature Range | Expected Rainfall |
|---|---|---|
| North & Center | 14 °C – 18 °C | 30 mm – 50 mm (up to 70 mm in Tabarka) |
| South | 17 °C – 19 °C | 5 mm – 27 mm |
May – “Heat Intensifies, Rain Fades”
- The month marks the peak of warmth and the onset of a drier period.
| Region | Temperature Range | Expected Rainfall |
|---|---|---|
| North & Center | 19 °C – 22 °C | ≤ 45 mm |
| South | up to 26 °C | ≤ 5 mm (some southern zones) |
Key Takeaways
- Temperature: Overall above‑normal, with the South reaching the highest highs (up to 26 °C in May).
- Precipitation: Concentrated in the North; the South will experience a noticeable dry spell, especially from May onward.
- Regional Contrast: The high plateaus (e.g., Thala) stay cooler and receive moderate rain, while coastal northern cities like Tabarka see the most rainfall.
These insights can help agricultural planning, water‑resource management, and tourism operators prepare for the evolving climate conditions throughout the spring of 2026.
