Seasonal Forecast: Above-Average Temperatures Expected in Tunisia
According to the National Institute of Meteorology (INM), seasonal forecasts indicate a high probability of recording temperatures above normal averages during the months of October, November, and December 2025.
Temperature Projections
The Institute expects the average temperature for these three months, calculated over the reference period 1991/2020 and according to geographical areas, to vary significantly from one region to another, ranging from 11.8 °C in Thala to 19.3 °C in Djerba. It is also predicted that coastal regions and the southeast of the country (Gabès, Médenine, Tataouine) will record higher temperatures than mountainous and inland regions (Thala, Le Kef, Kasserine).
Precipitation Outlook
Regarding precipitation, the INM notes that climate forecast models do not show a strong agreement or clear consensus on a single scenario. The Institute adds that some projections lean towards the probability of recording normal or slightly lower-than-average precipitation in most regions.
Regional Variations
The forecasts highlight a clear gradient between the north and south, with rainfall amounts being more significant in the north (Tabarka 443.1 mm and Bizerte 267.3 mm) and decreasing rapidly to less than 100 mm in inland and desert regions (30.1 mm in Tozeur and 22.5 mm in El Borma).
Monthly Breakdown
- October: Tunisia is expected to experience a gradual decrease in heat, with average temperatures ranging from 17 °C in the western highlands to 25 °C in the extreme south. Precipitation in the north is expected to range from 60 to 120 millimeters, while central and southern regions will typically receive less than 60 millimeters.
- November: This month is expected to mark the beginning of the cold season in Tunisia (based on the average temperatures of the 1991/2020 period), with a notable drop in temperatures ranging from 11 °C in western regions to 19 °C in the extreme south. The north will remain more humid, with precipitation ranging from 40 to 160 millimeters, while the center and south will experience a deficit, with rainfall amounts rarely exceeding 41 millimeters.
Overall, the INM's seasonal forecast suggests that Tunisia can expect above-average temperatures and varied precipitation patterns across different regions during the last quarter of 2025.
