Ecological Threat Report 2025: Tunisia Faces High Ecological Threats
The Ecological Threat Report (ETR) 2025, published by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), reveals that Tunisia has one of the highest levels of ecological threats among 172 countries and territories between 2019 and 2024. With a global ETR score of 2.604, Tunisia does not have the worst result in 2024, which belongs to Niger with a score of 4.420. However, the country has recorded the most significant deterioration in global ETR score among all studied countries over the period 2019-2024.
Key Findings
The report, made public in October 2025, is based on the evaluation of 3,125 subnational areas in 172 countries and territories, using data on ecological risks. The significant deterioration of Tunisia's score can be explained by three main factors:
- Increased water risk
- The baseline effect of 2019
- Infrastructure problems
Among the cited causes are unfavorable climate conditions, such as prolonged drought, high temperatures, and increasingly irregular precipitation. According to the IEP, these conditions followed an "exceptionally favorable" year in 2019, which served as a reference.
Water Risk and Infrastructure
In 2024, all Tunisian subnational areas were classified as medium-risk regarding water, with a global water risk score of 2.754. Nevertheless, nine governorates experienced a notable increase in ecological threats between 2019 and 2024. The Manouba governorate, in the Greater Tunis area, recorded the second-highest increase in ecological risk worldwide.
Regional Context
The IEP notes that the governorate of Bizerte remains the most ecologically threatened in Tunisia in 2024. However, the differences between governorates are relatively minor, with all showing medium risk levels and similar deterioration. Manouba stands out only with slightly higher degradation, particularly regarding water risk and the impact of natural events.
Population Density and Ecological Risk
The report highlights that population density is a key factor in assessing ecological risk. Thus, the most affected governorates are located in the north and coastal areas, where population density is high, increasing pressure on the environment and the capacity of ecosystems to support populations.
Insufficient Infrastructure
The deterioration of water risk in Tunisia is exacerbated by insufficient and poorly maintained infrastructure, with leaks accounting for around 30% of water supply. Pressures from drought and heat have led to water restrictions, sometimes exceeding ten hours of cuts for some residents. The Tunisian Water Observatory (OTE) recorded over 2,100 unannounced interruptions in the last year.
Regional Trends
This trend in Tunisia is part of a concerning regional context, with the Middle East and North Africa experiencing the highest global increase in ecological risk between 2019 and 2024. Northwest Africa, which includes Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco, has seen a significant deterioration in its ETR score, mainly due to rising water problems.
Global ETR Score
The global ETR score is calculated based on four interdependent threats:
- Water risk
- Food insecurity
- Impact of natural events
- Demographic pressure
About the Institute for Economics and Peace
The Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), based in Sydney, is an independent think tank with offices in New York and several other countries.
