Tunisia's Economy Demonstrates Resilience in Uncertain Global Context
In a world marked by uncertainty, Tunisia's economy has shown a remarkable ability to adapt and rebound. Now better measured and analyzed, this resilience has become a foundation for driving sustainable transformation and strengthening the country's economic dynamics.
The Press - Since the global economy entered a period of turbulence, the question of economic resilience has become increasingly pressing. The ability to absorb shocks, rebound, recover, and adapt has become more imperative than ever for economies. In the Tunisian context, managing shocks and mastering resilience requires tools tailored to the national economy, capable of identifying the structural pillars of this resilience. It is in this framework that the Itceq has developed an analytical framework that has enabled the construction of two synthetic indices, the objective of which is to appreciate the level of resilience of the Tunisian economy, to follow its evolution over time, but also to situate it in relation to the performances of a sample of countries. The results of these works were presented yesterday at a meeting organized by the Institute, placed under the theme "Resilience of the Tunisian economy: measures and challenges." Bringing together researchers, economists, and representatives of trade unions, this day offered the opportunity to debate the challenges and challenges related to resilience.
A Decision-Making Tool
Emphasizing the importance of this study, the Minister of Economy and Planning, Samir Abdelhafidh, highlighted the government's openness to scientific debates and the contributions of experts. "I subscribe with conviction to this initiative, whose ambition is to strengthen analyses on the capacity of our economy and our territories to respond to shocks, uncertainties, risks, and crises, to understand their mechanisms, to grasp causal chains, and to design adapted strategies," he said.
Stressing the multidisciplinary nature of the concept, the Minister indicated that strengthening the resilience of the national economy depends on the mobilization of all stakeholders. "In my opinion, it is up to the scientific community, first and foremost, to deepen research on resilience, a concept that is not entirely new but has been popularized following the devastating effects of the 2008 global financial crisis and, above all, the COVID-19 pandemic," he said.
Citing the contribution of the quantification carried out by the Itceq, he estimated that this work is called upon to fuel the debate and guide strategic choices and actions capable of responding to the uncertainties and risks faced by economic actors.
For the Minister, the approach to resilience must be holistic, encompassing all sectors and domains, to ensure greater coherence and strengthen the synergy of public policies. It is a complex concept that calls for measures, analyses, and strategies aimed at preventing, managing, and reducing the socio-economic costs of shocks and crises. According to him, resilience must be understood through three angles. First, multidimensionality, which involves taking into account all dimensions of development, including human and environmental factors. Then, territoriality, which allows for the analysis of the capacity of local economies to overcome shocks. Finally, households, insofar as economic resilience should not be limited to the entrepreneurial perimeter alone. "Over the past few years, the Tunisian economy has demonstrated resilience. This capacity has been manifested during the COVID-19 crisis, the Ukraine war, but also in the face of uncertainties surrounding international trade policies and energy price fluctuations," he said in a statement to the media, highlighting that the synthetic index developed by the Itceq constitutes a decision-making tool for decision-makers.
"We hope that at the next meeting, we will no longer debate the resilience of the Tunisian economy, but its dynamization. Today, we must move from a resilient economy to a dynamic economy, creating wealth and sustainable growth," he added.
Multidimensional Resilience
Presenting the study carried out by the Institute, Alaya Becheikh, Director General of the Itceq, explained that the results reveal a moderate resilience of the Tunisian economy between 2000 and 2023. This period was marked by a succession of crises, including the 2008 global financial crisis, the economic repercussions of the revolution, the 2015 events, the COVID-19 crisis, the years of drought, as well as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, conflicts that have affected economies around the world to varying degrees. Becheikh added that in the face of these shocks, the Tunisian economy has demonstrated an ability to absorb and recover. The sectors and enterprises oriented towards export, with a high level of productive competitiveness, a good level of productivity, and access to financing and markets, were more resilient compared to other sectors. "In parallel, the new orientations of public policies aim to improve the ability to adapt to changes and to drive economic and social transformation," he said.
According to Becheikh, this resilience is based on several factors, including the diversification of the economic fabric, the significant potential of the Tunisian economy, the quality of human capital, and social cohesion. "In other words, production capacities and social cohesion indicators constitute the foundation of the resilience of the Tunisian economy," he summarized. However, this resilience does not conceal certain vulnerabilities. Becheikh notably mentioned the country's financial and commercial dependence, which translates into a persistent deficit in the balance of payments and trade balance, a concentration of exchanges with certain regions of the world, and a high level of debt reached during certain periods. He also highlighted that institutional instability and the inadequacy of laws with the socio-economic reality that prevailed during certain periods have contributed to accentuating these structural vulnerabilities.
He added that in this context, the reforms currently underway aim to strengthen the country's financial and commercial independence. Improving the institutional framework and modernizing public management are also called upon to strengthen the economy's ability to adapt to mutations and the expectations of different socio-economic actors.
For a Resilient Economy
Our Aslan Berjeb, President of the Conect, noted that resilience should not be perceived as a virtue, as "resilience has a price." "At the macroeconomic and microeconomic levels, we are resilient, but we leave our feathers behind. The Tunisian enterprise has managed to adapt to various internal and international shocks, since the 2008 crisis, the security shock of 2015 in Tunisia, the COVID-19 crisis, as well as the current conflicts, notably in the Middle East and previously between Ukraine and Russia.
These events have affected the country's macroeconomic balances and have had an impact on businesses," he said. These difficulties, he added, have resulted in financing tensions and a change in the behavior of businesses, which, to adapt, have prioritized paying their suppliers over investing and maintaining their employees rather than laying them off.
"All this has made them face difficulties in a context marked by permanent regional and international competition, all the more so since the Tunisian enterprise does not evolve in a closed environment. It is part of an international space where competing enterprises benefit from the support and financing of their respective governments," he emphasized. Berjeb also insisted on the need, today, to transform this resilience into an active resilience, drawing inspiration from foreign experiences, notably those of Portugal and Greece, which have managed to make it a lever, not only to absorb shocks but also to rebound and rebuild their economy on solid foundations. "It is essential to put in place a business climate conducive to investment and re-investment, to develop diversified and adapted financing, and to simplify authorizations to facilitate access to the market, both for small and large enterprises," he concluded.
