Tunisian Economy Faces Deep-Rooted Structural Weaknesses, Says Economist Aram Belhaj
On May 26, 2026, economist Aram Belhaj stated that the Tunisian economy remains confronted with deep-rooted structural weaknesses in a context marked by international geopolitical tensions and insufficient growth to address social and demographic challenges.
Speaking on Express Fm, he commented on the recent analytical note published by the Arab Institute of Business Leaders (IACE), titled "Economic Recovery in a Context of Uncertainty in Tunisia".
According to him, this study focused primarily on the effects of global geopolitical tensions without integrating other major factors, including climate change and demographic mutations, which should have direct and indirect repercussions on the Tunisian economy.
Aram Belhaj explained that these factors risk exacerbating inflationary pressures, worsening the trade deficit and budget deficit, and weighing heavily on the country's financial balances.
The IACE note warns of a "triple shock" facing Tunisia, namely the war in Iran, the US trade war, and the slowdown of the European economy. According to this analysis, these factors could bring Tunisian economic growth to just 1% in 2026.
A level of growth that the economist judges insufficient to absorb demographic growth and meet the needs of the labor market.
A flawed economic model
Aram Belhaj also estimated that, independently of external factors, the current Tunisian economic model lacks the dynamism needed to generate strong and sustainable growth.
He considered that this model remains "weak in terms of wealth creation" and fails to significantly improve indicators related to unemployment, public deficits, and poverty.
The economist also highlighted the absence of a clear economic vision defining the relationships between the public and private sectors, as well as the role of the state in the economy.
According to him, discourses on the social role of the state have not yet been translated into concrete policies capable of supporting investment and stimulating growth.
On another note, Aram Belhaj indicated that the majority of international financial institutions remain cautious about Tunisia's economic prospects, due to the absence of ambitious structural reforms, the lack of diversification of economic partnerships, and limited openness to international financial markets.
In this context, he estimates that Tunisian growth will not exceed 1.8% in the best-case scenario.
In contrast, the African Development Bank Group predicts a 2.1% growth rate for Tunisia's GDP in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027, according to its report "Economic Prospects in Africa 2026", presented in Brazzaville during the institution's annual assemblies.
