World Bank Forecasts 2.6% Growth in Tunisian Economy by 2025
The World Bank predicts that the Tunisian economy will experience a growth rate of 2.6% in 2025, with a possible slight decline to 2.4% during the 2026-2027 period. These forecasts are set against a backdrop of restrictive financing conditions, persistent barriers to market access, and a lack of reforms.
In its report on the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, published on Tuesday, October 7, 2025, the Bank stated that the Tunisian economy will record a growth increase in 2025, primarily driven by economic production, particularly olive oil and cereals.
Factors Affecting Growth
The World Bank attributes its growth forecasts for the 2026-2027 period to several factors, including financing conditions and obstacles related to market access.
The report notes that the state's budget deficit will reach 5.7% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), mainly due to the persistence of subsidy-related costs and the wage bill in the public sector, despite a moderate increase in tax revenues.
Budget Deficit and Current Account Deficit
The report indicates that Tunisia will record a slight decrease in the budget deficit in the medium term, which should reach 4.4% of GDP by 2027, thanks to continued control of the wage bill and subsidies.
The Bank specifies that the current account deficit will increase to 2.7% of GDP in 2025, due to the increase in the trade deficit. This will be partially offset by a moderate increase in tourist revenues and a decrease in crude oil prices.
The report highlights that by 2027, this deficit will rise to 3.1% of GDP, indicating a moderate but continued deterioration of the country's external balances.
Financing and Reforms
According to the World Bank, foreign direct investment will remain stable, while portfolio investment will remain low, and pressures on external financing operations will persist.
Given the limited room for maneuver in the international financial market, the Tunisian authorities will resort to the Central Bank of Tunisia for foreign currency loans, according to the same source.
The World Bank expects the risks of a decline in Tunisia's economic growth to persist during the 2026-2027 period. In the short term, uncertainty remains regarding international trade, low foreign financing, and the continuation of drought, factors that could affect the growth rate and macroeconomic balances.
The report concludes that the medium-term prospects will improve significantly if Tunisia adopts a set of deep-seated reforms, including reforming budget expenditures, modernizing public enterprises, and promoting more dynamic competition.
