Growing Disparity Between Official Inflation Statistics and Reality in Tunisia
In a lengthy analysis published on his Facebook account, economist Ridha Choundali sheds light on the increasing gap between Tunisia's official inflation statistics and the reality experienced by its citizens. According to him, between 2015 and 2026, despite an official inflation rate dropping from 5% to 4.8% after reaching a peak of 10.3% in May 2023, this apparent decrease has not translated into an improvement in the standard of living for Tunisians.
Discrepancy in Inflation Calculation
Choundali emphasizes that the general consumer price index used to calculate inflation includes subsidized products, non-essential goods, and services that do not represent the priority expenditures of most Tunisian households. He notes that from January 2015 to January 2026, the cumulative inflation rate reached 8.5% according to the National Institute of Statistics' official data. However, when focusing on essential products that account for approximately 62.5% of households' monthly budgets, the situation appears significantly more concerning. Essential products (food, clothing) and incompressible services (rent, health, education, transportation) have experienced continuous and substantial increases, gradually reducing the share of disposable income available for savings or improving living conditions.
Two Periods, Two Inflationary Dynamics
In his analysis, Choundali distinguishes between two distinct periods. The first, from January 2015 to January 2022, recorded an average annual inflation rate of 6.6%. Despite this upward trend, the social impact remained relatively contained due to the maintenance of certain adjustment mechanisms, including subsidies, periodic salary increases, and facilitated access to bank credit for households.
Choundali notes that after July 2021, marked by a change in economic orientation, the nature of the inflationary phenomenon transformed. The average annual inflation rate rose to 8%, with a increased focus on basic products, in a context characterized by the simultaneous weakening of the state's and households' adaptability. Although this second period is shorter chronologically, its intensity has proven more destructive to purchasing power, occurring in an economic environment weakened by slowing growth, decreased investment, and rising unemployment.
Silent Erosion of Real Salaries
Choundali illustrates his point with concrete examples. According to his calculations, to maintain their purchasing power between January 2015 and January 2026, a salaried worker earning 500 dinars per month would have needed a salary increase to 966 dinars based on official inflation rates. This amount rises to 1,041 dinars when considering inflation related to essential products.
The gap between these theoretical thresholds and the salaries actually received by most workers explains the marked deterioration in purchasing power. "Tunisian workers have not only suffered a freeze on their income but an effective and undeclared reduction in their real remuneration, year after year," he writes. This silent erosion explains the collective feeling of deterioration in living conditions, even when official indicators signal a decline in inflation.
Structural Causes Beyond Monetary Factors
Tunisian inflation does not result solely from monetary conjunctural factors. It stems from the accumulation of several structural imbalances: excessive expansion of the money supply and significant state debt to the Central Bank, declining production, increased cost of imports, weak investment, devaluation of the national currency, and limitations of public policies supporting income.
Choundali explains that in the absence of real growth generating wealth and jobs, inflation has become an indirect tax borne daily by citizens, without counterpart in terms of improvement in public services or economic prospects.
Silent Social Recomposition
On the social level, this inflationary trajectory has caused a discreet restructuring of Tunisian society. The middle class, traditionally considered a social stabilizer, is progressively losing its savings capacity, increasing its dependence on credit, and reducing its expenditures in health, education, and culture. Meanwhile, the vulnerability perimeter has expanded, now affecting social categories once considered stable, favoring the development of the parallel economy as a survival mechanism.
Inflation thus becomes a factor of social fragmentation, as it does not distribute its burden equitably.
Limits of an Exclusively Macroeconomic Approach
This evolution highlights the inadequacies of an approach prioritizing global financial balances without being accompanied by clearly defined income policies. The stabilization of major macroeconomic indicators does not automatically translate into social stability if it is not accompanied by a fair redistributive framework for adjustment costs. The absence of this mechanism transforms inflation not only into an economic phenomenon but also into a source of latent tension between the state and society.
For Choundali, the trajectory of inflation in Tunisia between 2015 and 2026 demonstrates that the country is not facing a simple passing crisis of price increases but a structural transformation of the relationships between wages, prices, and the role of the state. The occasional decline in the inflation rate is not enough to convince citizens of an improvement in their situation as long as their lost purchasing power is not restored and a new social contract linking work, production, and dignity of life is not established.
Choundali concludes his analysis by stating that without a comprehensive revision of income policies, without reorienting subsidies towards the categories actually affected, and without indexing salaries to indicators reflecting the real cost of living, any nominal decline in inflation will remain without tangible effect on the daily existence of Tunisians. "We are not experiencing a simple conjunctural fluctuation, but a structural process of erosion of real income, where inflation has become a daily experience lived in markets, in rents, in health and education expenses, much more than a figure announced in official communiqués," he writes.
