# Analysis Note from the Association of Tunisian Economists Raises Alarm on the Erosion of a Social Group Once Seen as the Heartbeat of National Cohesion
Neither poor nor protected. Tunisian households that until recently enjoyed a comfortable middle‑ground are now hanging over a void, threatened by a downgrade that, just a few years ago, was not even imaginable.
The warning comes from a fresh briefing by ASECTU, signed by economist Fatma Mabrouk, titled “When Crises Redraw the Middle Class in Tunisia: Uncovered Vulnerabilities and Resilience in Action.”
The Foundations Are Crumbling Under Repeated Shocks
The analysis opens by stressing that looking at the middle class solely through the lens of income is a misreading. Three pillars more accurately define its contours:
- Job stability
- Access to essential services
- Ability to maintain a certain standard of living
All three are now under severe strain.
A convergence of economic, social, and environmental crises has triggered an accelerating erosion of purchasing power. Heavier tax burdens, continuously rising service costs, inflationary waves, and supply‑shortage episodes create a toxic cocktail that weakens households that were still above the official poverty line—yet now face a tangible risk of sliding down the social ladder.
Adaptation Strategies Come at a Price
Confronted with this deterioration, families did not wait for public authorities to act. The most common spontaneous responses observed are:
- Diversifying income sources (e.g., side‑jobs, freelance work)
- Mobilising local solidarity networks (family, neighbours, community groups)
- Turning to emigration (temporary or permanent)
These “springs” have helped partially cushion the impact of successive shocks.
Fatma Mabrouk qualifies this picture: adaptation mechanisms are not cost‑free. The most worrisome side‑effects are:
- Growing precariousness for many households
- Brain‑drain, as skilled workers flee abroad
Thus, the observed resilience is more a matter of constraint than a deliberate choice—a fight for survival rather than a proactive boost.
Formalising the Informal Economy to Secure the Future
Among the structural levers identified, formalising the informal sector occupies a central place. This sector currently acts as a shield against income instability for countless families. Integrating it gradually into official channels—through an inclusive approach—could:
- Secure livelihoods
- Open access to social protection and formal credit
- Raise overall productivity of the actors involved
Complementary Recommendations
- Broaden income‑generating activities and promote auto‑entrepreneurship.
- Promising sectors:
- E‑commerce
- Urban agriculture
- Digital services
- Renewable energy
- Modernised craftsmanship
These areas can create added value—provided project owners receive targeted support.
The Diaspora: An Under‑Utilised Strategic Reservoir
Another axis of the analysis highlights the still‑largely untapped potential of circular migration. By easing back‑and‑forth movements between Tunisia and host countries—especially through dedicated bilateral agreements—emigration could become a genuine lever for local development.
Benefits for the middle class would include:
- Stabilised incomes via remittances
- Job creation at home
- Technology transfer and productive investments
To unlock this potential, the note recommends:
- Return‑assistance programmes (housing, integration services)
- Targeted fiscal incentives aimed at investment
- Structured knowledge‑transfer schemes, co‑designed with migrant associations and the private sector
An Integrated Action Plan as a Comprehensive Response
Beyond sector‑specific levers, the economist calls for a coherent public‑policy architecture that combines:
- Revamped social protection
- Expanded access to financing
- Secured career pathways
- Strategic valorisation of migration flows
The dual ambition is to:
- Restore households’ capacity to project themselves into the future, and
- Preserve their engine‑role in a growth dynamic that is both sustainable and inclusive.
The ASECTU note thus paints a stark picture of a middle class under siege, while also outlining a roadmap that, if pursued, could rebuild its resilience and re‑anchor it at the core of Tunisia’s socio‑economic fabric.
