United Nations Estimates: Tunisia's Birth Rate to Reach 160,000 in 2025
According to the latest estimates from the United Nations' World Population Prospects report, Tunisia is expected to record approximately 160,000 births in 2025. This figure illustrates the continuation of a moderate demographic dynamic in the country, while also fitting into the broader context of demographic changes in the Arab world.
Regional Demographic Trends
At the regional level, Egypt leads the Arab countries in terms of the number of births, with an estimated 2.45 million newborns in 2025. It is followed by Yemen with around 1.40 million births, and then Iraq with nearly 1.18 million, placing these countries significantly above the rest of the region. Other Arab states also exhibit significant birth volumes: Algeria is estimated to have 855,000 births, Morocco 619,000, and Syria 601,000. Gulf countries and other states with smaller populations, such as Kuwait, Qatar, or Bahrain, record much lower figures, estimated at 48,000, 29,000, and 10,000 births, respectively.
Tunisia's Demographic Transition
The trend observed in Tunisia is part of an advanced demographic transition process: the fertility rate and natural growth are gradually decreasing, reflecting socio-economic changes, increased urbanization, better education for women, and more effective family planning. In this context, the expected birth rate for 2025 indicates a stabilization trajectory, consistent with long-term demographic projections. This trend must be considered in light of the challenges and opportunities it implies for Tunisian public policies. A more moderate number of births allows for better planning of social services, health, and education, while highlighting the need for strategies to maintain an economic dynamic capable of absorbing and valuing a changing human capital.
Global Demographic Trends
On a global scale, India is the country with the highest number of births in 2025, with over 23 million newborns, followed by China with nearly 8.7 million and Nigeria with around 7.6 million births.
