Tunisia's Trade Deficit Continues to Worsen, Revealing Persistent Structural Imbalances
The Tunisian trade deficit continues to deteriorate, highlighting persistent structural imbalances within the national economy. According to the Arab Institute of Business Leaders, the study "Imports: The Underlying Trends" reveals a worrying widening of the trade balance, which reached 16.728 billion dinars in the first nine months of 2025, exceeding the 13.497 billion recorded during the same period in 2024, based on data from the National Institute of Statistics. This deterioration is mainly due to a 5.4% increase in imports, while exports remain almost stagnant, progressing by only 0.03%.
A Complex Dynamic
The overall increase in external purchases masks a complex dynamic that could signal a nascent economic recovery. The decline in energy and food imports reflects a decrease in demand for basic products. In parallel, imports of mining, intermediate, and equipment products have recorded significant growth, reflecting an increase in the inputs necessary for national production.
Agricultural Sector Performance
The decline in demand for basic products has benefited the food balance, which shows a surplus of 620 million dinars in September 2025. This performance is supported by a 3.5% decrease in the value of imports, particularly cereals, with quantities collected reaching 11,780 million quintals, a result largely attributed to favorable weather conditions.
Energy Sector Continues to Weigh on Trade Deficit
In contrast, the energy sector continues to weigh on the trade deficit, accounting for 48% of it. The average daily oil production has fallen from 77,000 barrels in 2010 to 27,000 barrels currently, while gas production has decreased by 9%. The 11.8% slowdown in energy imports is mainly due to the 15% drop in the average Brent price and the depreciation of the dollar, illustrating that the gains from the favorable situation remain fragile.
Signs of Productive Recovery
Despite this vulnerability, the Tunisian economy is showing signs of productive recovery, driven by the growth of production goods. Imports of intermediate products have increased by 5.4%, and those of equipment products by 22.1%, compared to lower increases in 2024. The manufacturing sector, which accounts for 79% of exports and 71% of imports, is experiencing a resurgence of dynamism. The textile, clothing, and leather industry has seen an increase in external purchases of 3.5%, while the mechanical and electrical industries have recorded a 15% increase. This development reflects a strategic use of imports to support exports and strengthen integration into global value chains.
Mining Sector Contribution
The mining sector is also contributing to this dynamic. Imports of mining and phosphate products have jumped by 22.6%, while exports have increased by 8%. Production in the first half of the year reached 1.8 million tons, a 55% increase compared to the previous year. The Gafsa Phosphate Company aims to produce 5 million tons by the end of the year, a goal that could alleviate the trade deficit and compensate for potential declines in other sectors, such as olive oil.
Experts Call for Caution
Experts are calling for caution, however. The recovery remains fragile due to the low diversification of partners and limited specialization, which exposes the economy to external fluctuations. A decline in German car orders could turn imported inputs into unusable stocks, and the phosphate sector remains sensitive to social tensions, transportation difficulties, and environmental constraints. To consolidate the recovery, it is recommended to strengthen the role of the agricultural sector, accelerate the energy transition, and diversify trade partners while improving the added value of Tunisian productions.
