Tunisia's External Debt Repayment: A Cautionary Interpretation
While the Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT) announced on Wednesday, October 8, 2025, that the country had repaid 125% of its scheduled external debt by the end of September 2025, several economists are calling for caution in interpreting these figures. Analysts Bassem Neifer and Aram Belhaj emphasize that not all external debt for the year has been fully repaid, despite significant progress.
Official Data and Debt Repayment
According to official data published by the BCT, Tunisia settled 10,549.2 million dinars of external debt by September 30, 2025, exceeding the 8,469 million dinars allocated in the finance law for the year. This surplus has been presented as an indicator of good financial management, suggesting that the country would have paid off all its external commitments three months in advance.
A Partial and Inaccurate Reading, According to Experts
Financial analyst Bassem Neifer recalls that the announced 125% includes both state and private sector external debt, in accordance with international balance of payments standards. He also emphasizes that the 8,469 million dinars mentioned in the finance law correspond only to the principal of public debt, and not to the total debt service, which includes interest.
This reading is supported by Aram Belhaj, a professor of economics, who specifies that the total amount of external debt service for 2025 is 10,393 million dinars, divided between 8,469 million in principal and 1,924 million in interest.
Over 500 Million Dinars Still to be Repaid by December
According to Belhaj, Tunisia still needs to pay approximately 516 million dinars by the end of the year. These payments include:
- 61 million dinars to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October
- 111 million dinars to the IMF in November
- 140 million dinars to the IMF in December
- 204 million dinars to Afreximbank in December
These figures contradict the idea of a total and anticipated repayment of external debt for 2025.
A Notable Improvement in the Country's Financial Situation
Despite this, the two experts agree to recognize a significant improvement in the country's financial situation. Bassem Neifer emphasizes that Tunisia has not had to resort to new external borrowing to honor these payments, and that the level of foreign exchange reserves remains solid, supported in particular by tourist revenues and transfers from Tunisians abroad.
This dynamic has allowed for a gradual reduction in reliance on external debt. Neifer even anticipates a lower external repayment burden in 2026, due to a surplus of repayments over loans in recent years.
For Belhaj, the short-term risk is no longer default, but rather the state's ability to mobilize available resources to relaunch the real economy. He warns of the need to move away from purely accounting management and towards a strategy of inclusive and sustainable growth.
