The Sahel Crisis: A Threat to Regional Stability and European Security
By Halim BOUSSEMA*
In a context of growing tensions in the Sahel region, particularly in Mali, the threat is no longer theoretical or distant. It has become an immediate reality that directly pressures North African countries, especially Tunisia. Today, we face one of the most complex and dangerous crises: the intertwining of insecurity with irregular migration flows in a fragile regional environment that can tip over at any moment.
The Alarming Numbers
The numbers alone sound the alarm. According to recent international reports, the number of people forcibly displaced in the Sahel region exceeds 4 million. Moreover, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimates that tens of thousands of migrants travel each year through the desert routes towards North Africa. In the Mediterranean, 2024 has seen over 250,000 attempts to irregularly cross into Europe, a record level in recent years, with projections increasing for 2026 if the situation persists.
A Massive Human Pressure
These data are not just statistics; they represent a massive human pressure that is gradually converging towards transit countries, with Tunisia at the forefront.
The Challenge to Tunisian National Security
The challenge facing Tunisian national security goes beyond protecting borders. It involves managing heterogeneous human flows, which may include elements with high-risk profiles, linked to organized trafficking networks or extremist groups active in the Sahel region. The real danger lies not in the number but in the nature of these flows.
The Limits of Classical Approaches
In the face of this reality, classical approaches are showing their limits. Tunisia is called upon to adopt a proactive and structured vision, based on:
• Reactivating a crisis management model inspired by the 2011 experience with the Choucha camp, but in a more rigorous and better-controlled framework • Establishing secure collection centers in the south, allowing for precise identification of individuals and their nationalities • Accelerating return procedures, in coordination with international organizations and countries of origin • Strictly reinforcing control over land borders, which stretch over hundreds of kilometers in open desert areas
A Regional and International Response
However, despite these measures, Tunisia cannot bear this burden alone.
The response to this crisis goes beyond the national framework; it is fundamentally regional and international. Algeria and Libya have a direct responsibility in securing their borders and coordinating operational efforts, as any weakness in one of these countries will immediately translate into increased pressure on the others.
The European Union's Role
As for the European Union, it must fully grasp the situation:
• Tunisia is not just a transit country; it is the first line of defense on the southern shore of the Mediterranean. • If Europe wants to contain migration flows, it must engage concretely through:
- Direct financial support, worth several hundred million euros, to support the Tunisian effort
- Providing advanced surveillance equipment (drones, thermal detection systems, intelligent command centers)
- Supporting temporary reception and return facilities, in humane and organized conditions
- Urgently activating readmission agreements with sub-Saharan African countries
Time is of the Essence
Time is pressing. As the summer season approaches, marked by more favorable maritime conditions and a surge in crossing attempts, any delay in action will inevitably lead to a critical scenario:
• Migrants will converge on Tunisian coasts, then on European shores, in a dynamic that Tunisia, alone, cannot contain, regardless of its level of mobilization.
A Clear Position
The position must be clear:
• Tunisia is not a proxy border guard and cannot assume the consequences of a crisis of this magnitude alone.
• Defending Tunisia today means defending the stability of an entire region.
• Those who want to protect Europe tomorrow must support Tunisia today – a real, immediate, and unconditional support.
This is not an exaggeration... it's a warning before the crisis.
