Tunisian Economy Shows Resilience in the Face of External Shocks
In the first months of 2025, the Tunisian economy demonstrated resilience in the face of various external shocks, despite a delicate economic situation. Several indicators attest to this, including the improvement of growth rates, the decline of inflation, and the revision of the country's sovereign rating, as indicated in an analysis published in a report by the Ministry of Finance on the state budget project for 2026.
Positive Results for Most Indicators
The Tunisian economy has indeed achieved overall positive results for most indicators in the first months of 2025, which encourages continued efforts to find solutions to stimulate the underperforming sectors.
Economic Growth of 2.4%
The Tunisian economy recorded a growth rate of 2.4% in the first half of 2025, according to the same source. In the second quarter of 2025, estimates from the national quarterly accounts show that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in volume, corrected for seasonal variations, recorded a growth rate of 3.2% over one year. In quarterly terms, i.e., compared to the first quarter of 2025, GDP recorded an increase of 1.8%.
Sectoral Performance
- The value added of the agricultural sector evolved by 9.8% in annual terms in the second quarter of 2025. The agricultural sector contributed 0.84% to the growth rate of 3.2% recorded in the second quarter of 2025.
- The services sector maintained a positive activity pace in the second quarter of 2025, with its value added growing by 1.9%.
- In annual terms, the value added of industrial activities increased by 3.4% in the second quarter of the current year.
Decline in Inflation in September 2025
The inflation rate decreased in September 2025 to reach 5% compared to 5.2% the previous month. This decline is mainly explained by the slowdown in the evolution rate of food product prices (5.7% in September 2025 compared to 5.9% in August 2025), leisure and culture prices (4.6% in September 2025 compared to 5.4% in August 2025), and restaurant, café, and hotel services prices (10.1% in September 2025 compared to 10.6% in August 2025). Transport service prices also dropped by 3.1% in September 2025 compared to 3.6% in August 2025.
Monetary Policy Adjustment
This downward trend observed in the monthly inflation rate since the beginning of 2025 has been a key factor that allowed monetary policy to revise the benchmark interest rate. The Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT) thus reduced this rate to 7.5% in March 2025, for the first time after a series of increases during the 2022-2024 period.
Increase in Trade Deficit
As of the end of August 2025, trade exchanges experienced a slight decline in the pace of exports by 0.3%, while imports increased by 4.8%. This gap led to an increase in the trade deficit, which reached 14,640 million dinars (MD), compared to 11,925 MD during the same period in 2024. The non-energy trade balance deficit decreased to 7,492 MD.
Sectoral Export Performance
- Exports recorded an increase in the mining, phosphates, and derivatives sector (+11.9%) and the mechanical and electrical industries sector (+6.7%).
- Exports, however, recorded a decline in the energy sector (-39%) due to the decrease in sales of refined products (504.2 MD compared to 1,323.2 MD), as well as in the agro-food industries sector (-16.2%) following the decrease in the value of olive oil sales (2,702.4 MD).
Import Trends
- Imports of equipment goods increased by (+17.4%) and raw materials and semi-finished products by (+7.5%).
- In contrast, imports of energy products decreased by (-13.8%) and food products by (-3.9%).
Tourism and Remittances
- According to the Ministry of Finance's data, the country's revenue from tourism increased at the end of September 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, reaching approximately 6,264 MD.
- Transfers from Tunisians living abroad continued their upward trend, reaching 6,486 MD as of September 30, 2025, recording an increase of 8.1% compared to the same period in the previous year.
Foreign Exchange Reserves and Exchange Rate
- Net foreign exchange reserves also recorded significant growth, reaching 107 days of imports as of October 23, 2025, according to BCT statistics.
- As of the end of September 2025, the exchange rate of the Tunisian dinar against the dollar and the euro improved by 2.8% and 0.5%, respectively, compared to the same period in 2024.
Improvement in Tunisia's Sovereign Rating
The economic results of 2025 had a positive impact on Tunisia's sovereign rating, as global rating agencies revised the rating assigned to the country due to the control of the current deficit, available foreign exchange reserves, and the reduction of the budget deficit. According to the report, these indicators allowed for a reduction in the risks related to public debt service and strengthened confidence in the national economy.
- Moody's rating agency upgraded Tunisia's rating from Caa2 to Caa1 with stable outlooks in February 2025.
- The Japanese rating agency (R&I) "Rating and Investment Information" revised Tunisia's rating outlook (foreign currency issuer rating) from negative (B-) to stable on August 22, 2025.
- The American rating agency "Fitch Ratings" upgraded Tunisia's long-term issuer default rating (IDR) in foreign and local currency to "B-" from "CCC+" in September 2025, with a stable outlook.
