Tunisia Faces Climate Change Challenges, Requires $29 Billion in Funding

National Economy and Population Protection Requires $29 Billion in Funding

Tunisia's national economy and population will require an estimated $29 billion in funding over the period 2026-2035 to protect against climate change disruptions. This amount represents approximately 53% of the total needs determined by the National Contribution Determination (NCD) 3.0, presented during a national debate organized by the National Forum for Climate Change Adaptation.

Sectoral Breakdown of Needs

The water sector will require the largest share of adaptation needs, with an estimated $10.7 billion, followed by agriculture and food, estimated at $8 billion. Capacity building, technology transfer, and program adaptation support will require $1.58 billion.

Economic and Social Impacts

The strategic document highlights that Tunisia is directly exposed to the effects of climate change, including rising temperatures, decreased precipitation, and sea level rise. According to World Bank estimates, in the absence of urgent measures to manage climate risks, Tunisia's economy could contract by 3.4% of its GDP by 2030, equivalent to approximately $5.6 billion per year.

Annual losses related to water scarcity, coastal erosion, and flooding could reach 6.4% of GDP by 2050, equivalent to approximately $10.4 billion. The agricultural sector appears to be the most vulnerable, with a projected 15% decline in its value added by 2030 and a 29% decline by 2050.

This contraction will also lead to increased imports and decreased exports, exacerbating the current account deficit by more than 6% of GDP by 2030, thus weakening the country's external balances. The poverty rate could reach 21.3% by 2030, a 1.5 percentage point increase from the reference scenario.

NCD 3.0: A Structured Strategy

NCD 3.0 adopts an approach aligned with the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), aiming to transform the country's vulnerability into durable resilience by 2035. The strategy is structured around seven priority axes:

1. Sustainable Water Management: Increased use of non-conventional resources such as seawater desalination and treated water reuse.
2. Agricultural Sector: Focus on climate-resilient seeds, digitalization, and improved access to public aid for small farmers.
3. Ecosystem Protection: Protection of forests, oases, and wetlands.
4. Health System: Strengthening of the health system to address heatwaves and vector-borne diseases.
5. Infrastructure: Protection of coastal areas against erosion and integration of climate risks into urban planning.
6. Traditional Knowledge: Valorization of traditional knowledge such as "sharfia" fishing and sand agriculture.
7. Capacity Building: Strengthening of institutional and local capacities.

The overall goal of these measures is to improve living conditions, reduce poverty, and promote green job creation through sustainable regional development.