Will There Be a Strike or Not?
The question hangs on everyone’s lips, haunts the affected populations, gnaws at the minds of diplomatic circles, and threatens to destabilise the Middle East. Will the United States strike Iran and plunge the region into a conflict with devastating consequences? That is the intimidation Trump is wielding if a nuclear deal with Tehran is not reached.
Red Lines Appear Incompatible
- U.S. demands: zero enrichment of nuclear material and a limitation of Iran’s ballistic programme – effectively a full disarmament.
- Iranian stance: it will not accept any renunciation of enrichment, let alone a cap on its ballistic weapons, which it views as the ultimate deterrent against a potential aggression.
How the two positions will be reconciled or adjusted remains to be seen – we will know in the coming days.
Trump Raises the Stakes
To force a deal, Donald Trump is playing his “big cards” and threatens military intervention. He has deployed his two massive, technologically‑advanced aircraft carriers – the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Gerald Ford (the world’s largest) – together with more than a dozen warships to the region.
“It is the largest air‑power concentration in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq invasion,” reported the Wall Street Journal. Tens of thousands of soldiers are also stationed in bases across the area.
With such a show of force, nothing prevents the belief that the worst is still to come.
Beyond fear, some observers even see a symptom of a potential nuclear war. The world holds its breath.
Diplomatic Options?
Is the diplomatic route now completely off the table? Trump is entertaining the idea of limited strikes; whether limited or not, Iran has warned that any attack on its territory would be deemed an “act of aggression.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi diplomatically stated that certain U.S. demands will indeed be met. He hinted at a possible new meeting with the American delegation tomorrow, 26 February, to discuss the nuclear programme and, perhaps, bring the two sides closer together.
Our Assessment: U.S. Strikes Appear Inevitable
We see at least three reasons to believe an American strike is unavoidable:
- Justification of the naval deployment – the presence of the fleet must be put to use; Trump cannot withdraw this exceptional armada without extracting concessions.
- Iran will not capitulate – Tehran has received nothing in return, not even promises of sanction relief.
- Pressure from Netanyahu – the Israeli prime minister is terrified of any agreement, however modest, and is pushing his ally to act without compromise.
Consequently, Trump is being urged, with relentless insistence, to launch an attack and concede on nothing.
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