The weakening of the middle class threatens economic balance, warns ASECTU

When Crises Redraw Tunisia’s Middle Class: Unveiled Vulnerabilities and Resilience in Action

Source: Analysis note published by the Association of Tunisian Economists (ASECTU) – authored by economist Fatma Mabrouk

Why the Tunisian middle class is now at risk

For decades, the Tunisian middle class has been seen as a pillar of stability and social progress. Today, however, it is being eroded by a perfect storm of economic, social, and environmental shocks. The analysis stresses that an integrated, progressive strategy is essential to protect this segment, which forms the backbone of the social contract.

“Preserving the middle class requires a comprehensive framework that combines tailored social protection, access to finance, job security, and a strategic valorisation of circular migration, in order to restore its capacity to project and contribute to inclusive growth.” – Fatma Mabrouk

A more nuanced definition of “middle class”

The note argues that the middle class is more than just an income bracket. Its stability also depends on:

Professional security (steady employment, decent contracts)
Access to essential services (health, education, utilities)
Ability to maintain a certain standard of living

All of these dimensions are now under pressure.

Current pressures

Shock	Impact on households
Accelerated erosion of purchasing power (inflation, rising service costs)	Real wages shrink, everyday expenses rise
Supply shortages (energy, food, basic goods)	Households face scarcity and higher prices
Fiscal pressure (tax hikes, reduced subsidies)	Disposable income falls, savings dwindle
Risk of social downgrading	Families that were previously above the poverty line now face a genuine threat of slipping into poverty

Coping mechanisms – “constrained resilience”

Households are already deploying adaptive strategies, but these come with heavy social and economic costs:

Migration (temporary or permanent)
Income diversification (side‑jobs, informal work)
Greater reliance on informal solidarity networks

While these measures buffer shocks, they also lead to precarisation, brain‑drain, and increased inequality.

The Call for a Targeted Public Response

1. Integrated social protection

Tailored safety nets that reflect the multidimensional nature of middle‑class vulnerability.
Linkage of social benefits to employment status to avoid “cliff‑effects” that punish upward mobility.

2. Access to finance

Affordable credit lines for small‑scale entrepreneurs and self‑employed professionals.
Guarantee schemes that lower collateral requirements for middle‑class borrowers.

3. Job security & quality of work

Incentives for formal‑sector hiring (tax credits, wage subsidies).
Skills‑upgrading programmes aligned with emerging sectors (e‑commerce, renewable energy, modernised crafts).

4. Strategic use of circular migration

Bilateral agreements with host countries to facilitate periodic returns.
Return‑programme packages (tax breaks, start‑up grants, mentorship) that channel diaspora capital and expertise back into Tunisia.

Pillars of an Integrated, Progressive Strategy

Formalisation of the informal economy

“Strengthening and accelerating the formalisation of informal activities is essential because they act as a central safety net against income instability.”

Gradual, inclusive formalisation that protects livelihoods, improves access to social protection, and opens doors to formal financing.
Productivity gains through training, digital tools, and integration into national supply chains.

Diversification of income sources & promotion of self‑employment

Leverage high‑potential sectors:
- E‑commerce (marketplaces, logistics)
- Urban agriculture (vertical farms, community gardens)
- Renewable energies (solar installations, maintenance services)
- Modernised craftsmanship (design‑driven, export‑oriented)
- Digital services (freelancing, SaaS, IT support)
Targeted support (incubators, mentorship, micro‑grants) to turn informal side‑jobs into sustainable businesses.

Circular migration & diaspora mobilisation

Unlock the strategic potential of the Tunisian diaspora by:
- Creating investment‑friendly frameworks (tax incentives, streamlined licensing).
- Establishing knowledge‑transfer programmes in partnership with migrant associations and the private sector.
- Providing return‑assistance services (housing, childcare, language training) to smooth reintegration.

Policy Recommendations at a Glance

Area	Action	Expected Outcome
Social Protection	Multi‑dimensional safety nets linked to employment	Reduced risk of downgrading, higher consumption stability
Finance	Low‑interest credit lines & guarantee schemes for SMEs	Boost in self‑employment, formalisation incentives
Labour Market	Wage subsidies for formal hires, upskilling programmes	Better job quality, reduced informal‑sector dependence
Formalisation	Gradual registration processes, digital tax IDs	Expanded tax base, improved access to services
Sectoral Development	Grants for e‑commerce, renewable energy, urban agriculture	New value‑creation hubs, diversified income streams
Migration	Bilateral circular‑migration accords, diaspora investment funds	Inflow of capital & expertise, stable remittance flows

Conclusion

The Tunisian middle class is at a crossroads. Without a coordinated, forward‑looking policy mix, the cumulative shocks could push a large segment of society into lasting precarity. By combining social protection, financial inclusion, job security, formalisation, income diversification, and strategic diaspora engagement, Tunisia can rebuild the resilience of its middle class and lay the groundwork for inclusive, sustainable growth.