Tunisia Embarks on Demographic Transition with Aging Population on the Rise
Tunisia is undergoing a demographic transition marked by a gradual increase in the number of elderly individuals, although it has not yet reached an advanced aging phase, according to Professor Hassen Kassar, a demographer and social sciences expert at the 9 April Faculty.
Aging Population to Reach European Levels in 15 Years
According to Professor Kassar, Tunisia is expected to enter a phase of aging comparable to that observed in Europe within the next 15 years. This development necessitates anticipating public policies to adapt to this new reality, he emphasizes.
Deep-Rooted Demographic Changes in Tunisia
The Tunisian demographic structure is undergoing profound changes, characterized by:
- A decline in the birth rate to insufficient levels to ensure the renewal of generations
- A significant decline in marriage rates
- An increase in divorce rates
Social Transformations and Demographic Rebalancing
Professor Kassar highlights the role of social transformations, particularly the changing status of Tunisian women, in reshaping traditional demographic balances.
Economic Challenges: Restructuring the Labor Market
On the economic front, Professor Kassar notes that Tunisia does not primarily suffer from unemployment but rather a need for labor market restructuring. He points out that approximately 55% of active workers operate in the informal sector, without contributing to social protection systems, posing a significant challenge to the national economy. He advocates for better integration of these workers into the formal sector.
Migration and Demographic Impact
Regarding the issue of migration, Professor Kassar asserts that the presence of migrants from sub-Saharan Africa in Tunisia will have no significant impact on the country's demographic structure in the short or medium term. He estimates that any such change would occur over several generations and to a limited extent.
Tunisia to Rely on Migrant Labor
However, Professor Kassar notes that Tunisia will draw on migrant labor in various sectors, including construction, hospitality, domestic services, and agriculture, due to growing labor market needs.
