The End of Happy Globalization
Globalization, once celebrated as a driver of universal prosperity, is now a thing of the past. Interdependence, formerly synonymous with openness and growth, has become an instrument of domination and confrontation.
This is the straightforward assessment of Professor Sami Mensi, head of the economics department at the Tunis Higher School of Commerce, in his intervention on RTCI. According to him, the current disintegration does not mean the end of globalization, but its metamorphosis.
A New Global Economic Order
Since 2018, observes Professor Mensi, trade flows have been reorganizing: exchanges are strengthening between allied countries, while they are declining between rival blocs. This recomposition, described by the professor as "silent, fragmented, and sometimes conflictual," undermines past certainties, but opens up opportunities for those who know how to act with lucidity and dignity. Mensi emphasizes the emergence of "instrumentalized interdependence."
What once favored stability now serves as a strategic lever. He recalls that 20% of goods traded worldwide are critical products, with a large part controlled by China, creating systemic vulnerability.
Major powers are exploiting this dependence by multiplying strategies of relocalization and selective alliances, from American "friend-shoring" to European "near-shoring."
In this dynamic, he affirms, a new geo-economic order is taking shape, marked by a "cold economic war" where rivalry is expressed through sanctions, technological restrictions, and normative confrontations.
- The United States is betting on massive reindustrialization to secure its sovereignty.
- The European Union is seeking to combine openness and strategic autonomy.
- China is consolidating its positions by controlling critical nodes and strengthening its regional dependence networks.
Challenges and Opportunities for Tunisia
Professor Mensi stresses that Southern countries are not condemned to suffer from this recomposition. For Tunisia, the challenge is major: its dependence on the European Union and the Maghreb for more than 70% of its exports, as well as its energy vulnerability of over 80%, limit its room for maneuver.
However, he also recalls the country's considerable assets: a strategic Mediterranean geographical position and a human capital of over 250,000 students, a true lever for innovation and diplomacy.
According to him, transforming these resources into strategic strength requires a clear roadmap. He recommends selective integration into regional value chains, modernization of port, customs, and logistics infrastructure, and active economic diplomacy.
Tunisia, he says, should play the card of active neutrality, diversifying its partnerships between Europe, China, the Gulf countries, and sub-Saharan Africa.
He also emphasizes the need to move up the industrial scale, investing in biotechnology, digital services, and renewable energy, while protecting strategic sectors.
A Call to Action
Professor Mensi warns that inaction is no longer an option. In a world where geopolitical alignment is becoming a major determinant of growth, Tunisia must imperatively rethink its development model.
It cannot be content to be a spectator: it must position itself as a regional connector, relying on its human capital and an agile and sovereign foreign policy.
