OPEC+ Members Announce Surprise Increase in Oil Production
Effective October 2025, Despite Expected Demand Decrease
In a statement released on Sunday, September 7, OPEC+ member countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, announced a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day. This decision has surprised analysts, who were expecting a decrease in demand in the fourth quarter.
Potential Decrease in Crude Oil Prices
The production increase, which will take effect in October 2025, has caught markets off guard, as they were expecting a maintenance of the current production levels. This increase follows a steady rise in production since April, with increases of 138,000 barrels per day in April, 411,000 barrels per day in May, June, and July, and 548,000 barrels per day in August.
Contrary to Expected Market Trends
While analysts were anticipating a slowdown in the oil market due to the traditional seasonal decrease in demand in the fourth quarter, the eight OPEC+ countries are continuing to increase their production quotas. This development could lead to a further decrease in crude oil prices, potentially below $60 per barrel, according to some analysts.
Preserving Market Stability
In their statement, the producers claimed that this adjustment is part of their effort to preserve market stability, based on current fundamentals and stable global economic prospects. They also specified that the previous reduction of 1.65 million barrels per day could be fully or partially restored, progressively and depending on market conditions.
Compensating for Excess Volumes
The OPEC+ countries reaffirmed their commitment to closely monitor and evaluate the situation, with the goal of fully compensating for any excess volumes accumulated since January 2024. For many analysts, this unexpected decision reflects a strategy to regain market share, particularly in the face of increasing competition from other producers, such as the United States, which has significantly increased its production since 2024.
