After a Generously Rainy Winter and a Warmer-than-Normal Spring, What's in Store for Summer 2026?
Our ancestors, who were perfect connoisseurs of the climate, predict that summer 2026 will be warmer than previous years. Their intuition seems to be spot on! Not based on random hypotheses, climate change is governed by natural phenomena and purely scientific scenarios. Therefore, it would be useful to know that climate experts anticipate an extraordinary summer in terms of warming. We will witness a transition between two climate phenomena, namely from La Niña to El Niño. This transition will be marked by exceptional temperature increases.
The Niña-Niño Transition: A Warming of the Waters
To better understand the phenomenon, we consulted Hamdi Hached, an engineer specializing in the environment and climate. According to him, 60% of the Niña-to-Niño transition will occur this summer. First, it's essential to know that El Niño is, by definition, a cyclical climate phenomenon that occurs every 2-7 years, characterized by the abnormal warming of the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon disrupts the climate in this region and the entire globe. It will replace La Niña or its inverse this summer. La Niña, on the other hand, is based on the cooling of surface waters in the center and east of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Unlike the warm phase (El Niño), which weakens the trade winds (regular winds in the intertropical regions), the cold phase (La Niña) strengthens these winds and modifies precipitation and temperature patterns.
"We will witness abnormal increases in mercury levels in the Pacific waters, as well as the weakening of the winds, which are essential to environmental balance. Significant repercussions are expected for the autumn-winter period 2026," Hached notes.
The Climate is No Longer the Same, and Seasons Are Not Either!
Indeed, the impact of El Niño on the affected area will be significant. The weakening of the trade winds will affect agriculture and trigger drought, particularly in Asia. In South America, the repercussions will manifest as heavy rainfall and flooding. In Australia and Southeast Asia, risks of drought and forest fires are expected. "In Tunisia and the Mediterranean region in general, climate changes are predictable. El Niño will favor climate instability, which will oscillate between longer periods of drought, interrupted by significant rainfall, and a change in the timing of seasonal changes," he adds.
Heatwaves, Health, and Energy Economy
Regarding temperature estimates for the upcoming summer, they anticipate a higher frequency of heatwaves; longer and more intense heatwaves than usual. Mercury will show an additional 1.5 to 2 degrees, with higher nighttime temperatures. "The predicted heatwaves this summer will impact health, energy, water resources, and agriculture. Therefore, it is essential to rationalize electricity and water consumption. Although our water reserves have been significantly improved this year, it is still necessary to continue in an economical logic. It is also advisable to reinforce vegetation in urban areas; flora softens the air. It is also essential to avoid going out during peak temperature hours and to ensure hydration and protection against UV rays," Hached anticipates an exceptional autumn. We are talking about a spectacular October in terms of temperature and extreme phenomena.
Translation Notes:
- La Niña and El Niño are translated as "La Niña" and "El Niño" to maintain the original names and their cultural significance.
- The term "phénomène climatique cyclique" is translated as "cyclical climate phenomenon" to convey the idea of a recurring event.
- The term "alizés" is translated as "trade winds" to maintain the original meaning and context.
- The term "pluviométrie diluvienne" is translated as "heavy rainfall" to convey the idea of excessive precipitation.
- The term "sécheresse" is translated as "drought" to maintain the original meaning and context.
- The term "canicule" is translated as "heatwave" to convey the idea of prolonged and intense heat.
