Tunisia on the Brink of a Demographic Milestone

According to recent demographic projections published by the National Institute of Statistics (INS), Tunisia's population is expected to reach approximately 12.16 million inhabitants by 2030, up from 11.97 million in 2024. This represents a modest growth of just 190,000 people over a six-year period.

The institute notes that the rate of demographic growth in Tunisia is trending towards a marked slowdown compared to previous decades. The country is poised to enter a phase of extremely low demographic growth, which could resemble stagnation by 2054.

This structural decline is primarily attributed to the ongoing decline in birth rates. According to expert estimates, this downward trend is expected to continue in the coming years before experiencing a gradual recovery starting from 2027.

These projections also highlight a profound shift in the age pyramid. The population under 20 years old will begin to decline, while the proportion of 20- to 59-year-olds will remain relatively stable. Conversely, Tunisia will face a significant increase in the proportion of seniors over 60 years old.

The INS reminds us that Tunisia has undergone one of the fastest demographic transitions in the entire Mediterranean basin in less than 40 years. For example, the total fertility rate has plummeted from over 3 children per woman in 1994 to just 1.54 children per woman in 2024.

The 2024 General Census of Population and Housing revealed a global population lower than initial projections, confirming that Tunisia's demographic transition has been more rapid and profound than anticipated.

These new projections were developed using civil registration data and the results of previous censuses. The INS employed a probabilistic approach conforming to United Nations standards to outline the most likely population scenario for Tunisia up to 2054.

Despite this trend, the institute emphasizes that this demographic trajectory is not entirely irreversible. The authors of the report urge the adoption of swift public policies to effectively address the significant socio-economic challenges induced by these population mutations.