University Scholar and Economist Ridha Chkoundali Warns of Dramatic Consequences if the Iran‑U.S./Zionist Conflict Expands
According to his projections, the current military escalation could raise Tunisia’s energy bill from TND 1.6 billion to more than TND 10 billion, directly threatening the 2026 budget balance and price stability mandated by the Finance Law.
A Major International Shockwave Hits the Tunisian Economy
In a Facebook post, Ridha Chkoundali points out that strategic strikes in Iran and retaliations against U.S. bases in the Gulf have already triggered an immediate 13 % jump in crude oil prices. He reminds readers of a crucial budget rule for Tunisia: every $10 increase in the barrel price versus the assumptions of the 2026 Finance Law adds a direct cost of TND 1.6 billion to the state’s accounts.
Graded Risk Scenarios
Chkoundali’s analysis is built on a precise gradation of risk:
| Scenario | Oil‑price impact | Cost to Tunisia | Inflation effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Limited conflict | Prices rise 10‑15 % due to a simple geopolitical risk premium | Manageable; no structural break | Slight inflation, easily absorbed |
| 2. Partial supply disruption (withdrawal of 3‑5 million barrels/day from the world market) | Oil price crosses $100 per barrel | TND 4 billion loss | Inflation rises by 1 percentage point |
| 3. Global systemic shock (closure of the Strait of Hormuz) | Oil price reaches $120 per barrel | Additional TND 6‑7 billion bill | Inflation increase > 1.5 pp |
| 4. Full‑scale internationalisation (major powers turn oil into a strategic weapon) | Oil price soars to $150 per barrel | Over TND 10 billion cost | Acute trade deficit and unsustainable pressure on foreign‑exchange reserves |
A Geopolitics of Break‑down
Chkoundali explains that the escalation goes beyond symbolic strikes; it threatens the transit of one‑fifth of global oil supplies. He describes a divided world:
- United States and the Zionist entity aim to neutralise Tehran’s military and nuclear capabilities.
- France, Germany and the United Kingdom provide political backing to Washington, possibly motivated by promises of tariff reductions under the Trump administration.
Conversely, Russia and China condemn the actions. Beijing, heavily dependent on Iranian imports, faces a risk of supply‑chain rupture, while Moscow could profit from soaring prices to strengthen its position on the global energy chessboard.
Final Wish
In conclusion, Ridha Chkoundali hopes that hostilities do not move beyond the first (limited‑conflict) scenario, thereby sparing the Tunisian economy from the catastrophic repercussions he outlines.
Keywords: Tunisia energy bill, oil price shock, Iran‑U.S. conflict, Strait of Hormuz, 2026 Finance Law, inflation impact, geopolitical risk, Ridha Chkoundali, Tunisian budget, global oil market.
