The Reality of Inflation in Tunisia: A Persistent Threat to Citizens' Purchasing Power
The fact is clear for Tunisians: despite stabilizing the inflation rate, the negative effects of the high cost of living continue to impact citizens' daily lives. Although the inflation rate has decreased to 4.8% at the beginning of 2026, purchasing power has not improved. Even with the government's strategy to maintain inflation around 5.3% for the entire year 2026 to protect purchasing power, the goal has not yet been achieved. Many Tunisians still struggle to make ends meet.
Professor and economist Ridha Chkoundali has analyzed this issue. In a post on his Facebook page on Thursday, February 12, he stated that although the current inflation rate is the lowest since March 2021, the degradation of the standard of living experienced by Tunisian citizens in recent years continues. He explained that official inflation figures alone do not fully reflect the depth of socio-economic changes that have occurred since 2015, which have intensified since July 2021.
A Gap Between Figures and Reality
Chkoundali noted that according to data from the National Institute of Statistics (INS), which uses 2015 as the base year for calculating the price index, the inflation rate rose from around 5% in January 2015 to 10.3% in May 2023, before decreasing to 4.8% in January 2026. However, he argued that this decline does not translate to a real improvement in purchasing power, but rather a slowdown in the pace of price increases, which had reached irreversible levels. "Inflation must be evaluated by the ability of society to absorb its shocks, and not by its simple percentage change," he wrote.
The Nature of the Consumer Price Index
Chkoundali also discussed the nature of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which combines subsidized products, non-essential items, and services that are not a priority for most households. This mix leads to what he called "statistical attenuation" of the cost of living. By looking at what he termed "experienced inflation," related to the citizen's consumption basket, which accounts for approximately 62.5% of monthly expenses, he highlighted a different reality: basic food products, rent, health, education, and transportation have recorded significant and continuous increases.
Non-Conforming Revenues
Regarding salaries, Chkoundali specified that based on the evolution of official inflation figures, a salaried worker who earned 500 dinars per month in January 2015 should earn around 966 dinars in January 2026 to maintain the same purchasing power. However, applying what he called "experienced inflation" related to basic products, these figures must be revised upward. He estimated that the gap between these theoretical levels and actual salaries explains the sharp decline in purchasing power, emphasizing that the Tunisian salaried worker has not only suffered a wage freeze but also a hidden reduction in their real salary year after year.
Economic Underpinnings
On the economic level, Chkoundali attributed this trajectory to a series of imbalances, including rising production costs, increased import prices, the depreciation of the dinar, as well as the weakness of production and investment, and the exhaustion of income support policies. He considered that inflation in Tunisia is not solely the result of monetary factors but a reflection of a failure in the growth model.
The Erosion of the Middle Class
On the social level, he indicated that inflation has contributed to a silent recomposition of the social structure, marked by the erosion of the middle class and its increasing reliance on debt. "The middle class, historically the guarantor of social stability, is losing its ability to play this protective role. Its savings are eroding, its dependence on credit is increasing, and its qualitative consumption in the areas of health, education, and culture is collapsing."
A New Social Contract
Chkoundali concluded his analysis by stating that the decline in the inflation rate is not enough to convince citizens of an improvement in their situation as long as their degraded purchasing power has not been restored and a new social contract, linking work, production, and dignified life, has not been refounded. "Without a new social contract, inflation, even at low levels, will remain a factor of daily erosion of incomes and a permanent source of social frustration. We are not experiencing a simple, ephemeral price surge, but a structural process of degradation of real income."
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