Tunisia's Central Bank Takes Measures to Regulate Non-Priority Imports Amid Persistent Currency Reserves and External Deficit Concerns
In response to ongoing tensions over currency reserves and the widening external deficit, Tunisia's Central Bank has decided to regulate the financing of certain non-priority imports. Presented as a temporary measure to preserve macroeconomic balances, this move has reignited debate over its effectiveness, potential protectionist risks, and consequences for already fragile Tunisian businesses in an uncertain economic environment.
A Conjunctural Response to External Pressures
The circular No. 2026-04 from the Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT), which regulates the financing of non-priority imports, is part of a conjunctural management approach. This allows for a restriction on bank financing for imports of non-priority goods, taking place within a macroeconomic framework marked by significant external constraints.
According to Hatem Salah, an economist and professor at the University of La Manouba (ESC Tunis), this orientation should be read primarily as a "conjunctional response to increased pressure on external balances." The list of products communicated to credit institutions should be analyzed as a conjunctural instrument of regulation of foreign exchange flows, aiming to mitigate persistent imbalances in the balance of payments and preserve foreign exchange reserves.
Reducing the Immediate Effects of the Deficit
In this context, this measure is more of a short-term policy aimed at stabilizing the economy rather than a structural and durable orientation of commercial or financial policy. It aims to reduce non-priority imports to free up short-term room for maneuver. This is less about correcting the trade deficit than about mitigating its immediate effects.
Tunisia remains marked by a durable trade imbalance. The trade deficit has oscillated between 15 and 17 billion dinars over several years, while foreign exchange reserves generally plateau at around 90 to 100 days of imports, a fragile level for an open and dependent economy.
In this context, the BCT seeks primarily to curb the outflow of foreign exchange and preserve financial balances, in the face of increasingly constrained access to external financing. The circular appears as a precautionary measure to strengthen short-term resilience in the face of difficult-to-anticipate shocks.
Structural Causes of the External Deficit
Hatem Salah emphasized that "these instruments do not address the structural causes of the external deficit, but allow for a temporary gain in a constrained environment." Another key factor to consider is the increased frequency of exogenous shocks affecting the Tunisian economy over increasingly short horizons.
Whether it's the pandemic, the surge in energy prices, or disruptions to global supply chains, the Tunisian economy has shown, to some extent, resilience in the face of international crises of great scope. However, this resilience appears partially eroded by an increasingly uncertain geopolitical environment, marked by military tensions in the Persian Gulf, which can generate significant indirect effects, such as a rise in oil prices, increased transportation costs, and heightened tensions on international financial markets.
Efficacy and Protectionist Risks
Beyond the debate on the legitimacy of these measures, it is essential to question the situation of Tunisian economic actors directly affected by the list of products concerned. These operators already operate in a degraded environment, both nationally and internationally, and it would be illusory to think that these decisions would be without cost for them.
They necessarily imply difficult adjustments, even if they can be justified by the desire to preserve macroeconomic stability in a particularly uncertain global context. In this framework, Hatem Salah also explained that "the most exposed companies will have to arbitrate between reducing activity and strategic adaptation," highlighting different effects depending on the sectors.
Many are already facing a slowdown in activity, increased production costs, and limited visibility on their short- and medium-term prospects. Some may be forced to reduce their production or delay their investment projects. Others will seek to adapt and reinvent their business model. The central question remains their ability to overcome this constraint within relatively short deadlines, relying on innovation, whether organizational or productive.
A Temporary and Targeted Measure
It is essential to recall that these restrictions cannot constitute a durable economic strategy. They must remain temporary, targeted, and clearly explained to limit uncertainty for investors and businesses, as the economist reminded.
In conclusion, the Tunisian Central Bank's decision to regulate non-priority imports is a conjunctural response to external pressures, aiming to preserve macroeconomic balances and reduce the immediate effects of the trade deficit. However, this measure raises questions about its efficacy, potential protectionist risks, and consequences for already fragile Tunisian businesses.
