International Monetary Fund (IMF) Upgrades Growth Forecast for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its growth forecast for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, now expecting a 3.3% increase in GDP by 2025, up from its previous estimate of 2.6% in May. Despite this improvement, the institution warns that risks remain tilted to the downside due to global uncertainty, trade tensions, and a still fragile geopolitical context, said Jihad Azour, Director of the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia Department, in an interview with Reuters in Dubai.
Key Factors Contributing to Growth
According to the IMF, oil-exporting countries continue to benefit from:
- Increased energy production
- Strengthened public investments
- Structural reforms aimed at diversifying their economies
For oil-importing countries, the following factors have contributed to growth:
- Lower commodity prices
- Recovery of tourism
- Increased remittances from expatriates
- Moderation of inflation
- Improved access to financial markets
Sources of Vulnerability
The IMF highlights several sources of vulnerability, including:
- A slowdown in global demand that could lead to lower oil prices
- Persistent global inflation
- Escalating international trade tensions
"If geopolitical tensions have shown signs of easing in recent weeks, caution is still warranted," concluded Jihad Azour, noting that the region remains exposed to global economic fluctuations.
