Tunisia Expected to Record 2.5% Growth in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, According to IMF Report
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) published its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report on Tuesday, forecasting that Tunisia's economy will grow by 2.5% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026. According to the international financial institution's projections, Tunisia's inflation rate is expected to reach 5.9% in 2025 and 6.1% in 2026. The budget deficit is forecasted to be -3.1% and -3.3% of GDP in 2025 and 2026, respectively.
Global Economic Outlook
The global economic forecasts have been slightly revised upwards compared to the April 2025 edition, but remain lower than those of October 2024, prior to the strategic reorientations. Global growth is expected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025, and then to 3.1% in 2026. It is expected to be around 1.5% in advanced economies and slightly above 4% in emerging and developing economies.
Inflation and Trade
The IMF also predicts a decline in global inflation to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026, with regional disparities: inflation above target in the United States, where risks remain oriented upwards, and more moderate inflation in most other regions. The volume of global trade is expected to grow by 2.9% on average over the 2025-2026 period, driven by anticipated purchases and investments in 2025, but lower than the 3.5% recorded in 2024, due to persistent fragmentation of global trade.
Risks and Recommendations
The IMF warns that "global growth prospects are at risk of being revised downwards," citing persistent uncertainty, rising protectionism, labor supply shocks, fiscal vulnerabilities, and risks of corrections in financial markets, all of which could threaten economic stability. The institution calls on decision-makers to "restore growth by taking credible, transparent, and viable measures." It recommends strengthening trade diplomacy, rebuilding fiscal space, preserving the independence of central banks, and accelerating the implementation of structural reforms.
