Tunisia's Foreign Exchange Reserves to Decrease in 2025, but Remain Sufficient
According to the Arab Institute of Business Leaders (IACE), Tunisia is expected to close the year 2025 with a decreased stock of foreign exchange reserves, but still sufficient to cover 91 days of imports. The total net need for foreign currency to cover the current deficit and repay external debt is estimated at 3,136 million dinars (MD) in 2025, compared to only 98 MD in 2024, highlights the IACE in its note titled "Macroeconomic Stability in Tunisia: Achievements of the National Program versus the IMF Program", published on Thursday. This significant increase is explained by a high current deficit, resulting from both the stagnation of exports (-0.3% over the first eight months of 2025) and the increase in imports (+4.8%), as well as specific losses, such as the decline in olive oil prices (1.1 billion TND) and the decrease in hydrocarbon production (nearly 1 billion TND). "The gain from the decrease in oil prices was only 357 MD over eight months, or 5%, while the price had fallen by 15% compared to the previous year," the report emphasizes. However, Tunisia benefits from foreign exchange inflows thanks to capital assistance and net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), recalls the IACE. The external debt service for 2025, estimated at 10,500 MD in principal, will be covered, although this will lead to a decrease in foreign exchange reserves. Nevertheless, the stock of reserves is expected to remain sufficient to cover 91 days of imports, a limit considered acceptable by financial institutions. The report also specifies that the external debt continues to decrease while respecting deadlines, which is essential for reassuring investors and foreign donors. For the authors of the report, these performances explain the recent improvements in Tunisia's rating by international agencies.
