Tunisian Real Estate Market Faces Challenges
The Tunisian real estate market is going through a delicate phase, marked by rising prices and fiscal prospects that may further slow down demand. According to the latest data published for the first half of 2025, the average price per square meter of residential apartments increased by 4% compared to the same period in 2024, a rise driven in particular by new housing whose prices jumped by 5%. Despite this upward trend, overall demand for apartments has slightly decreased, recording a drop of around 1%. On the other hand, supply has increased by 3%, dominated by old apartments which represent the majority of the market. Potential buyers continue to prioritize medium-sized housing, between 90 and 180 square meters, considered more accessible than large apartments. However, the situation could become even more complicated with the 2025 finance bill, which provides for an increase in the tax applied to new housing, from 13% to 19%. This measure, aimed at increasing tax revenues, risks increasing the final cost for households and slowing down access to property, particularly for young couples and middle-income families. Experts estimate that such a development could exacerbate the slowdown in demand and strengthen the difficulties encountered by the banking sector in real estate financing. In the face of this situation, the State is trying to maintain a policy of support for social housing. Rent-to-own programs are being implemented for modest families, in parallel with public real estate projects led by the Tunisian National Real Estate Company and the National Fund for Housing Improvement. These initiatives aim to improve living conditions, reduce regional disparities, and gradually replace precarious housing. The market remains highly geographically polarized. Coastal areas and the northern suburbs of Tunis, such as La Marsa or Ariana, concentrate a significant share of new residential projects, while the housing crisis persists in several regions of the interior. With nearly 75% of households already owning their homes, Tunisia has one of the highest ownership rates in the region, but the tension between prices, supply, and purchasing power remains a concern. The government is preparing a restructuring strategy for the sector for the period 2025-2035. This roadmap aims to improve access to financing, strengthen social housing, and encourage the rehabilitation of the real estate stock. It remains to be seen whether these measures will be sufficient to stop the price spiral and meet the expectations of a population seeking sustainable solutions.
