Economic Growth Regains Momentum
Driven by the strong performance of the tourism and agriculture sectors, economic growth is showing signs of recovery. With inflation on the decline, public debt under control, and a decreasing budget deficit, several encouraging signals indicate a gradual return to economic stability.
Positive Economic Indicators
According to Sami Bouassida, Director at the Institute of Competitiveness and Quantitative Studies (Itceq), the analysis of Tunisia's economic indicators reveals signs of improvement. During a webinar organized by the Iace as part of its "90 minutes with Iace" program, the economist presented an analysis of the national economic situation.
Bouassida explained that the economic growth rate, which reached 3.2% in the second quarter, can be attributed to the significant improvement in agricultural and tourist activities. These performances have offset the weakness of industrial activity, which has been affected by the economic slowdown in the European Union, Tunisia's main partner.
Inflation and Macroeconomic Equilibria
The economist emphasized that inflation remains one of the primary indicators of the national economy's health. As the transmission belt between the monetary and real spheres, any market dysfunction inevitably affects its evolution. With inflation having continuously decreased over the past two years, it now sends a positive signal.
Furthermore, Bouassida highlighted that macroeconomic equilibria are stabilizing, with public debt decreasing and a budget deficit that is expected to fall below 5% by 2026.
Challenges and Opportunities
However, the economist noted that unemployment, still at high levels, remains a structural problem. The participants also indicated that economic growth is expected to stabilize around 2% annually, a rate that is increasing but also illustrates the untapped potential of the Tunisian economy.
Bouassida explained that the poor performance recorded in recent years, particularly in comparison to competing economies in the region, can be attributed to a succession of internal and external crises. The international context, marked by what specialists now call the "permacrisis" – a long period of turmoil – has significantly affected Tunisia's economic partners and, consequently, its economy.
This situation has weighed on investment, reducing its contribution to growth. Therefore, identifying promising sectors is crucial, according to Bouassida. The Itceq has focused on detecting high-potential sectors, primarily driven by external demand.
Strategies for Growth
Directing investors towards these niches, through financial and tax incentives, would help revitalize investment, whose rate has sharply declined since 2011, added Bouassida.
The economist also emphasized the need to improve the business environment through structural reforms, particularly in terms of administrative procedures and financing.
By addressing these challenges and leveraging opportunities, Tunisia can continue on its path towards economic recovery and stability.
