Tunisia Unveils Third Version of National Contribution to Address Climate Change
Tunisia has unveiled the third version of its National Contribution (CDN), a new roadmap for reducing emissions and adapting to the impacts of climate change. The strategic framework, dubbed "CDN 3.0," aims to mobilize estimated $55 billion in funding over the period 2026-2035 to finance projects and programs dedicated to addressing growing climate challenges.
Prioritizing Water Security and Agricultural Protection
In light of the country's vulnerability to environmental crises, the Tunisian authorities have placed securing water resources and protecting the agricultural sector at the top of their priorities, considering them as two essential pillars to ensure economic and social stability.
Warning of Economic Recession and Agricultural Decline
The document, which was discussed on May 16-17, 2026, during a seminar in Gammarth, warns that the Tunisian economy could face a 3.4% recession by 2030 if urgent measures are not taken, particularly due to the water crisis and flood risks. Additionally, the agricultural sector, which represents one of the foundations of social stability, risks seeing its added value drop by up to 15% by 2030 if current approaches are not modernized.
Ambitious Objectives for Water Resources and Agriculture
To address these risks, Tunisia has set ambitious objectives for water resources, including a massive shift to non-conventional water sources. The plan aims to increase seawater desalination capacity to 265 million cubic meters per year by 2035. The state also aims to increase the reuse of treated wastewater in agriculture to 50% by 2035, up from 6% in 2022.
Regarding the agricultural sector, Tunisia aspires to build a resilient agricultural system capable of ensuring food security despite expected precipitation declines of 9-12% by 2050. This includes rehabilitating 1.2 million hectares of degraded land and adopting drought-resistant tree varieties for approximately 40% of new plantations.
Massive Funding Needed, with International Support Crucial
Implementing Tunisia's climate plan requires colossal investments estimated at approximately 161.3 billion dinars, split between adaptation projects (53%) and emission reduction projects (47%). In the adaptation domain, the plan allocates around $29 billion (approximately 85 billion dinars), prioritizing the water and sanitation sector (10.7 billion dollars / 31.31 billion dinars) and the agriculture and food security sector (8 billion dollars / 23.4 billion dinars).
For emission reduction projects, the cost is estimated at around $25 billion, with 87% dedicated to the energy sector to accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy. Tunisia aims to cover 26% of these needs with national funding, while the success of 74% of the plan remains dependent on international support and funding.
Innovative Economic Tools and International Cooperation
To mobilize these resources, authorities plan to adopt innovative economic tools, including the "Climate Taxonomy" launched in 2025 to identify eligible green financing activities and guide public and private investors. Tunisia also aims to benefit from Article 6 mechanisms of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, through the commercialization of carbon emission reductions and the attraction of investments in renewable energy.
Furthermore, the government is orienting towards a budgetary reform and the direct integration of the climate dimension into the state budget and the 2026-2030 development plan.
Tunisia's Commitment to a Low-Carbon and Resilient Development Model
Although Tunisia is responsible for only 0.07% of global emissions, it strives to demonstrate that it is possible to build a low-carbon and resilient development model while launching an urgent appeal to the international community to support the most vulnerable populations facing climate change.
It is worth noting that National Contributions (CDN) are the fundamental tool adopted by countries within the framework of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to define their emission reduction commitments and adaptation plans. This third version, "CDN 3.0," is part of the implementation of the Paris Agreement in response to the recommendations of the first global climate action report, which called for urgent increases in ambitions to maintain global warming below 1.5°C by the end of the century.
