India's Sugar Export Freeze Sparks Global Concerns

India's decision to suspend its sugar exports until the end of September, combined with geopolitical and climate tensions, has raised alarm bells. The fear is that a new global crisis could put pressure on major importing countries in the Arab world.

Sugar at the Heart of Global Economic Concerns

Sugar is once again at the center of global economic worries. As the world's second-largest producer, India has decided to freeze its exports until the end of September. This drastic measure has added to the disruptions in an already fragile international market, which has been affected by wars, particularly against Iran, energy price volatility, and climate fluctuations.

Global Implications

The consequences of this decision extend far beyond India's borders. They come at a time when the global market is facing a surge in fertilizer and maritime transport costs, fueling fears of a generalized shortage during a season that is expected to be deficient worldwide. With the pressing needs of major buyers in the region and despite efforts by Brazil and Thailand to fill part of the gap, a crucial question arises: is the world heading towards a new sugar crisis?

The Arab World on the Front Line

Indeed, the Arab world seems to be on the front line in the face of this supply shock. According to the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) December 2025 report on global sugar trade, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, and Saudi Arabia dominate the list of top importers in the region for the 2024/2025 season.

Arab Panic

The volume of imports by the United Arab Emirates has risen to 2.271 million tonnes in 2024/2025, up from 2.121 million tonnes in the previous season, with projections pointing to an increase of 2.29 million tonnes for 2025/2026. Algeria follows closely with 2.245 million tonnes imported in 2024/2025 (compared to 2.034 million tonnes in 2023/2024), a figure expected to stabilize at 2.25 million tonnes in the next season. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, has recorded 2.24 million tonnes for 2024/2025, a significant increase from 1.982 million tonnes in the previous season, although a decline to 2.055 million tonnes is anticipated for 2025/2026.

Contrasting Trends in the Region

Other countries in the region are showing contrasting trends in the face of this crisis. Morocco has seen its imports rise from 1.701 million tonnes to 1.89 million tonnes in 2024/2025, before a slight decline is expected to 1.803 million tonnes in 2025/2026. In contrast, Egypt has experienced a significant decline in its import flows, dropping to 1.26 million tonnes in 2024/2025 from 1.96 million tonnes a year earlier, with a continued decline expected to 1.06 million tonnes in 2025/2026. Iran, on the other hand, has maintained a high level with 1.02 million tonnes imported in 2024/2025, a volume expected to surge to 1.3 million tonnes in the 2025/2026 season.

Market Reaction

The financial markets have not been slow to react. Immediately after India's announcement, prices soared. According to Reuters, sugar futures contracts in New York jumped by over 2%, while white sugar in London recorded a rise of around 3%, illustrating the nervousness of investors in the face of an uncertain future.

Tunisia's Sugar Situation

As for Tunisia, Brazil is the primary sugar supplier, accounting for more than half of our total imports (around 57%). This sugar imported from Brazil is mainly in the form of raw sugar intended for refining. The country also diversifies its supplies by purchasing refined sugar from European Union countries and, occasionally, through land transport from neighbors like Algeria to meet urgent storage needs.