Global Economic Outlook: Pressures and Challenges
According to the September 2025 edition of Deloitte's global report, the international economic landscape is marked by significant pressures. The analysis focuses on three main areas: a sharp slowdown in US employment, the consequences of US tariffs on China, and the macro-financial situation in Tunisia.
US Employment Market Sees Significant Slowdown
The US labor market has experienced a serious downturn in 2025. Net job creation reached only 107,000 over the past four months, a steep decline compared to the 868,000 jobs created during the same period at the end of 2024. Several sectors, including construction, manufacturing, and financial services, have even recorded negative or near-zero job creation in August.
Only the healthcare and hospitality sectors have resisted, showing positive growth. In this context, pressure on wages has eased, with a moderate hourly increase of 3.7% over the past year. However, despite persistent inflation, the Federal Reserve (Fed) may still implement several interest rate cuts before the end of 2025, adopting a more accommodative monetary stance.
US Tariffs Weigh Heavily on Chinese Exporters
On the other side of the Pacific, US tariffs are heavily impacting Chinese exporters. Only 9% of the cost of these taxes is absorbed by China, with the rest being borne by American importers. This measure is weighing on Chinese sales and raising concerns about the health of export-oriented factories. In response, Beijing is strengthening its strategic alliances, particularly with India and Russia.
Meanwhile, strong monetary growth and an accommodative policy are boosting stock markets, attracting massive investments from local and international investors who are abandoning fixed-income products in favor of stocks.
Eurozone Inflation Sees Slight Uptick
In the eurozone, inflation experienced a slight increase in August, reaching 2.1% year-over-year, its highest level since April. Underlying inflation, however, remained stable at 2.3%. While the slowdown in service sector inflation is a positive signal for the European Central Bank (ECB), the overall rate remains above the 2% target. The ECB may therefore choose to keep its key interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year. Global inflationary pressures, exacerbated by the US trade war, pose an additional upside risk.
Tunisia's Macro-Financial Situation
The report also examines the macro-financial situation in Tunisia, based on other sources. The country's economic outlook is marked by significant challenges, including a large budget deficit and a high level of debt. The Tunisian government is implementing reforms to improve the business climate and attract foreign investment, but the country's economic growth remains slow.
Overall, the global economic landscape is marked by significant pressures and challenges, including a slowdown in US employment, the consequences of US tariffs on China, and the macro-financial situation in Tunisia. The report highlights the need for policymakers to implement accommodative monetary policies and structural reforms to support economic growth and stability.
