Deglobalization: A Catalyst for Change in Tunisia's Economy
In the face of a emerging bipolar world, deglobalization should not be perceived as a threat, but rather as a catalyst for change in an economy like Tunisia's. Provided that the country focuses on knowledge, innovation, and greater openness to Africa, it can benefit from a new global economic order.
The Right Posture for Tunisia
What posture should Tunisia adopt in the face of the accelerating deglobalization movement, set against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions? This question, among others related to economic resilience in the face of multiple crises, was debated during an international conference recently organized by the Laboratory of International Economic Integration (LIEI) at the University of Tunis El Manar. The event, chaired by Fatma Marrakchi, a professor of economics, brought together prominent Tunisian and international economists.
The Ongoing Deglobalization Movement
Responding to a question about the impact of deglobalization on the Tunisian economy, economist Mongi Safra emphasized that this phenomenon will be irreversible, driven by political reasons, unlike economic and financial crises that have occurred over the past few decades, such as the Covid crisis or the subprime crisis.
He explained that this movement was initiated by the United States when a Chinese tech giant attempted to enter American technology companies. This wave of protectionism was triggered by the United States, which has relatively low trade protection (around 2%) compared to other OECD countries.
According to him, this phenomenon is expected to continue until 2050, during which time a bipolar world will take shape. He added that it is up to Tunisia to benefit from this movement, recalling that, although the country is historically close to Western countries culturally and commercially, it has always maintained good relations with other regions of the world.
Leveraging Opportunities
"It is our duty to make the most of it, without calling into question our agreements and commitments with the European Union, given the historical nature of these relations, particularly with regard to SMEs' foreign direct investment (FDI)," he explained.
Mongi Safra indicated that Tunisia, like India, is now seeking to attract FDI from large companies, especially Asian ones, "which are able to bring us technology." He noted that although India had huge differences with China, it has now bowed to acquiring technology because it has not invested enough in research and development, unlike China.
He added that Tunisian skills abroad, upon returning to their country, can contribute to this technological transfer.
Opening Up to Africa
Asked about the risks of diverting investment flows induced by deglobalization, the economist estimated that this risk mainly concerns the leather and textile sectors.
"This is why I insist that our commitments with the European Union continue," he said.
Investments in this sector are a major source of employment in Tunisia and a supplement to income for many families, particularly women who work in these industries, he specified.
In contrast, the mechanical and electronic industries are well-positioned because Tunisia has been able to acquire technology in these areas.
Focusing on Innovation and Knowledge
Economist and former minister Abderrazak Zouari articulated his intervention around new drivers and processes of growth, explaining that innovation and knowledge now play a central role in economic growth.
Drawing on the work of the 2024 and 2025 Nobel laureates in economics, he recalled that three main ideas structure current thinking on growth:
- Growth is based on a cumulative process of knowledge progress.
- Innovation requires a favorable institutional environment.
- Innovation destroys existing rents, requiring a competitive framework conducive to the emergence of new innovative companies.
Thus, Zouari believes that Tunisia can only escape the "trap of intermediate-income countries" by focusing on innovation and knowledge. "Is it not time to rethink our education, training, and research and development system?" he asked.
He continued by recalling that the 2024 Nobel laureates in economics highlighted the determining role of institutions in a society's economic choices and, consequently, in its long-term development.
Emphasizing that there are two types of institutions, inclusive and extractive, he wondered if "the current institutions, which date back to the 1970s, have not become extractive?" Zouari advocated for reforms based on two pillars: institutional change and the promotion of knowledge and innovation.
Reforms Without Budgetary Costs
For his part, economist Habib Zitouna estimated that, in the current context marked by limited fiscal space due to debt constraints and budgetary constraints, the Tunisian government can consider reforms that do not require any funding, such as improving competition, incentives for research and development, or adapting the rules of the economic game.
These reforms can help Tunisia navigate the challenges of deglobalization and capitalize on new opportunities for growth and development.
