Recent Demographic Trends in Tunisia
Recently, statistics published by the National Institute of Statistics (INS) reveal a significant decline in several demographic indicators in Tunisia. The number of marriage contracts has dropped by nearly 10% in 2024 compared to the previous year.
The INS's monthly bulletin for July shows that 70,942 marriages were registered in 2024, compared to 78,115 in 2023, a decrease of over 8,000 cases.
The report also highlights a decline in the number of births, which fell from 147,242 in 2023 to 133,322 in 2024. This represents a decrease of nearly 10% in just one year.
This trend is part of a continuing decline in the birth rate in Tunisia, influenced by several socio-economic and demographic factors. These factors include changes in marriage models, delayed age of first pregnancy, and economic pressures that weigh on family decisions regarding procreation.
According to the 2024 General Census of Population and Housing, the fertility rate is 1.7 children per woman, which is well below the population replacement rate (2.1 children per woman), the minimum required for generational renewal. This indicates a rapid aging of Tunisian society.
The census also shows that the annual demographic growth rate has fallen to 0.87% during the period 2014-2024, the lowest since independence.
These indicators reveal a significant change in the age structure of the population, with an increase in the proportion of older people and a narrowing of the base of the age pyramid (children and young people). This situation poses future challenges for the labor market, social protection systems, as well as public policies in health, education, and social services.
According to demographic experts, if effective policies are not put in place, the continuation of this decline in marriage, birth, and fertility rates could exacerbate the problems of aging in society. They emphasize the need to adopt comprehensive approaches to ensure a balance between different age groups and guarantee the sustainability of national systems.
