Significant Decrease in Tunisia's External Debt
The volume of Tunisia's external debt has seen a significant decrease, dropping from 66,874 million dinars (MD) in 2023 to 62,539 MD in 2024, according to the Ministry of Finance's report on the state budget project for 2026. This trend is expected to continue, with an estimated external debt of 56,971 MD in 2025 and 56,486 MD in 2026.
Total State Debt on the Rise
In contrast, the total volume of state debt is expected to reach 156,704 MD by the end of 2026, up from 145,032 MD in 2025, representing an increase of 11,672 MD. This rise is primarily due to the financing of the budget deficit (11,015 MD) and the impact of exchange rate fluctuations (650 MD).
Public Debt as a Percentage of GDP
Despite this increase, the public debt as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to decrease slightly, from 84.02% in 2025 to 83.41% in 2026, compared to 84.9% in 2024.
Limited Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations
The report highlights that the impact of foreign currency fluctuations on the volume of state debt remains limited. A 1% increase in the exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, or Japanese yen against the dinar could lead to an increase of 593 MD, equivalent to approximately 0.32% of GDP. To put this into perspective, the ministry estimates that a variation of 0.01 dinar for the US dollar and euro, and 0.1 dinar for 1,000 Japanese yen, would have a direct impact on the volume of debt.
Prudent Management of External Debt
These forecasts highlight Tunisia's prudent approach to managing its external debt, reducing its dependence on international financing while ensuring the financing of the budget deficit and overall economic stability.
Importance of Managing Exchange Rate Fluctuations
The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the importance of controlling the impact of exchange rate fluctuations to consolidate the sustainability of public debt and maintain the confidence of international investors in the Tunisian economy.
