US-China Trade Deals on the Horizon, but Iran Dossier Remains Stalemate: Donald Trump's Visit to Beijing
Donald Trump's visit to Beijing, received with full honors by Xi Jinping, masks a fundamentally reconfigured power dynamic. In an interview with Express FM on May 13, 2026, Adnan Limam breaks down the true stakes of a summit where economics takes center stage and US ambitions clash with the realities of the world.
According to Limam, the protocol deployed by Beijing reflects the importance China attaches to this visit, as it is aware that Washington has made it its primary adversary, as evident from the US National Security Strategy document published in December 2025. Despite its power, China seeks to avoid direct confrontation to maintain a manageable balance in managing its differences with Washington. This is a rational choice: China is today the world's leading economy, measured by purchasing power parity, with the US in second place. Limam cites Emmanuel Todd, who argues in his latest book that a significant portion of the US national product is artificial and does not represent real wealth.
Trump wanted to arrive in Beijing as a victor, buoyed by a supposed victory over Iran that would give him a hand on global energy resources. However, Iran has held its ground, thwarting US ambitions for hegemony over hydrocarbons. Thus, the US president entered the Chinese capital as an interlocutor with some negotiating cards, but in a posture of relative humility.
No Iranian-US Deal Facilitated by China
A China-facilitated Iranian-US deal during this summit is highly unlikely, according to Limam. Trump wants to impose conditions on Tehran as a winner that he is not, and Iran will reject these conditions at any cost. The Middle East also touches on China's strategic imperatives: it is from this region that the necessary supplies for the Silk Road initiative pass. Helping Washington impose its vision would mean Beijing acting against its own interests.
The logic goes even further, Limam continues: China has every interest in the US suffering a strategic defeat in this war, so that Washington cannot use the energy lever or control strategic corridors to weaken Beijing or compromise its trade routes. The positions remain too far apart to envision an agreement: Washington demands the return of enriched uranium and the dismantling of Iran's nuclear program, while Tehran sets its own conditions, dictated by the power dynamics revealed by the war in its favor.
A factor exacerbates the deadlock: US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner actually defend Israeli interests rather than American ones, a fact that John Mearsheimer, a political scientist, bluntly states. In this context, China cannot accept being reduced to a mere instrument of pressure to serve Israeli demands. Its role in this dossier will therefore remain without decisive influence.
Economy: Probable Deals but Unnegotiable Reciprocity
The economy is the true heart of this summit, with other dossiers being mere derivatives, Limam affirms. The central objective of US policy is to prevent China from becoming the world's leading power, in a context of sustained Chinese growth against the backdrop of US industrial capacity decline. To reverse this trend, Trump wants to reindustrialize the US, which requires finding accommodations with Beijing on market access, or even offering investment opportunities on US soil.
Trade, economic, and customs agreements are very likely to emerge from the summit. However, China will only open its markets to US businesses in exchange for reciprocity allowing its own businesses to take root in the US, a balance that would be illusory to ignore. According to Limam, there remains a structural asymmetry: while China's strategy is stable, long-term, and impermeable to changes in people or circumstances, the US approach remains dependent on the impulsive and unpredictable temperament of Trump. This imbalance will inevitably weigh on the actual scope of any agreement reached.
