Tunisia’s Economy Expected to Strengthen in 2025, Says Central Bank Report
Source: La Presse – The 2024 annual report of the Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT) projects a solid rebound for the national economy in 2025, driven by a robust agricultural season, an industrial revival, and sustained private consumption. However, the outlook remains fragile amid global uncertainties and geopolitical tensions.
A Promising Agricultural Season
The BCT estimates that Tunisia’s macro‑economic environment will improve in 2025, delivering GDP growth of 3.2 %. This expansion is expected to be supported by higher value‑added output across most sectors—except hydrocarbons, which remain stagnant due to a lack of new exploration and development investments.
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Agriculture: The sector is forecast to grow 5.1 %, thanks to better climatic conditions.
- Cereal production could jump over 58 %, reaching 18.2 million quintals.
- Olive‑oil output is projected to rise 30 %, hitting 330 thousand tonnes.
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Services: Activity is slated to increase 2.8 %, led by a resurgence in tourism.
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Industry: A modest recovery is anticipated, with 3.3 % growth driven by export‑oriented manufacturers and a surge in phosphate production—5.5 million tonnes expected in 2025 versus 3 million tonnes in 2024.
Strengthening Domestic Demand
According to the BCT, easing inflationary pressures in 2025 should boost private consumption. A more favorable environment for large‑scale development projects is also expected to revive investment flows.
Nevertheless, the bank cautions that these positive scenarios are vulnerable to major risks stemming from an uncertain international context, heightened geopolitical and geo‑economic tensions, and potential disruptions to trade, investment, and global financial stability.
Investment and Capital Formation
The 2025 economic budget aims to further improve the contribution of domestic demand to overall growth, primarily through:
- A solid rise in Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), thanks to business‑friendly reforms and measures.
- Support programmes for Small and Medium‑Sized Enterprises (SMEs).
- Accelerated execution of large infrastructure projects.
Consumption Trends
- Private consumption is projected to stay on an upward trajectory, buoyed by the 2024 wage increase and a revised personal‑income tax scale, alongside a slowdown in inflation.
- Public consumption is expected to stabilize, reflecting the continuation of a strict fiscal policy.
External Trade Outlook
Tunisia’s foreign trade will remain highly dependent on the economic performance of its Euro‑zone partners, especially in key manufacturing sectors. Any slowdown in those economies could affect Tunisia’s export and import dynamics.
Bottom Line
The Central Bank of Tunisia’s 2024 annual report paints an optimistic picture for 2025, with agricultural strength, industrial revival, and private consumption as the main growth engines. Yet, the fragility of these prospects underscores the need for vigilant policy measures to mitigate external shocks and sustain the momentum.
