Global Semiconductor Market Set to Surpass $1 Trillion by 2030, Driven by AI Boom
According to a study by research firm Counterpoint Research (AI 360) released on Monday, 1 September, the worldwide semiconductor market is expected to more than double, exceeding $1 trillion by 2030.
The surge is primarily powered by the development of artificial intelligence, which is creating an unprecedented demand for computing power, memory, and connectivity—both in the cloud and at the edge of devices.
Short‑Term Drivers
- Massive investments by hyperscalers in infrastructure dedicated to generative AI are the main economic catalyst.
- Applications that started with text generation are now expanding to audio, image, and video, triggering an exponential rise in needs for:
- GPUs and AI accelerators
- High‑bandwidth memory (HBM) and DDR memory
- Optical interconnects
Semiconductors form the backbone of the AI economy, supporting platforms, models, and applications.
The Next Development Phase: Agentic AI
The upcoming wave will rely on agentic AI, capable of:
- Conducting complex conversations
- Performing semantic research
- Generating integrated multimedia
Counterpoint notes that we are witnessing the birth of a “token economy,” where tokens become a new form of digital currency. This shift demands massive compute and memory resources, further amplifying semiconductor consumption.
Medium‑ and Long‑Term Outlook: Physical AI
AI embedded in autonomous systems—such as humanoid robots, industrial machines, or vehicles—will drive additional demand. These use‑cases will require sophisticated hardware that can deliver real‑time decision‑making autonomy.
Value Distribution Across the AI Value Chain
- Today, ≈ 80 % of AI‑market revenue still comes from semiconductors for infrastructure and endpoints.
- In the future, the largest share of value will stem from applications and APIs positioned along the value chain.
The token economy could follow a trajectory similar to mobile applications in the past decade, spawning complete service ecosystems and multiplying commercial value.
Source: Counterpoint Research (AI 360) study, 1 September 2024.
